NBA Pick: Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets ‘under’ 209

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, March 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Rockets have now gone ‘under’ in eight of their last 11 games as they continue to play to inflated totals, and this looks like another one here vs. a Jazz team that struggles on the road.

As has become the norm in games involving the team that plays at the fasted pace in the NBA, the total again looks inflated Wednesday night when the struggling Utah Jazz (34-33, 10-24 away) pay a visit to those Houston Rockets (36-31, 22-10 home) at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 209 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Houston Rockets may be second in the NBA in scoring with 106.5 points per game while leading the league with a pace rating of 98.8 possessions per contest, but as usually happens the bookmakers have caught up to them and it is the ‘under’ that is 8-3 in the last 11 Houston games.

Now that is not because Houston games have been lower scoring, because they have not been for the most part with the exception of the Rockets’ last game on Sunday, as those last 11 games have averaged a combined total of 208.5 points. Rather, it is because inflated totals have become routine, often being posted in the 215-220 range.

As we alluded too, Sunday was probably an aberration when the Rockets only put up 78 points and shot 32.6 percent from the field in a 30-point home loss to the Golden State Warriors, but even their more “normal’ scoring nights have been going ‘under’ as of late, and although tonight’s total is not in that 215-220 area, it still seems high considering the offensive struggles that Utah is having.

The last time these clubs met the Rockets went into Utah and destroyed the Jazz 125-80 on January 28th, and even that game stayed ‘under’ the total of 208½, roughly the same as tonight’s total. That brought the ‘under’ to 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams.

The Jazz are ranked just 14th in the league in scoring at 97.9 points per game, but that average drops to 95.9 points on the road, and lately Utah has had trouble scoring regardless of the venue. The Jazz are coming off of an ugly 90-83 loss to the injury depleted New York Knicks on Monday that marked the fifth time in the last six games that they have scored 90 points or less with the last two occurrences disconcertingly coming at home.

Furthermore the Jazz are shooting just 38.8 percent over their last three games combined, so look for yet another ‘under’ on an inflated Houston total on Wednesday.


NBA Pick: Jazz, Rockets ‘under’ 209 (-105)

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