After losing the first two games at in the series I am taking the Boston Celtics to upset the Cleveland Cavaliers in today’s match up. This game should be a great one to watch but I think Boston comes out on all cylinders to pick up an important win.
A must win, the line, and recap
The statistics for winning a series when down 0-3 is pretty daunting, and the Celtics know this. NBA odds makers have come out with Cleveland as a -4 favorite, but I like the value on the live home dog in this match up. In the first two games Cleveland won in pretty strong fashion but the second game I believe is a little more telling as to how this series may go. In the first match up we saw an up and down offensive affair where both teams combined shot around 45% from the field and 38% from beyond the arc. In the second game it seemed like both teams made some defensive adjustments and those numbers dropped for a combined 41% and 26%, big difference. With Brad Stevens I believe the Celtics can continue to contain Cleveland’s offense and also continue their gritty play, all things considered Boston is not intimidated by the Cavs and should play with a real sense of urgency.
Digging into the stats
On the season Cleveland has been a monster at home, on the road though they have been vulnerable. As one would suspect, most of their shooting averages drop on the road. From the field they go from almost 47% to just below 45%, from beyond the arc from 38.6% to 34.6%, and assists go from 24 per game to 20 per game. Boston at home will be a significantly tougher team to face for the Cavs. Defensively they play better at home in defensive field goal percentage and assists allowed. Also, on the year overall they are ranked fourth in the league in defensive shooting from beyond the arc.
The Boston Celtics believe they can beat Cleveland, and I think how they kept battling in game two is proof of that. Stevens should have a good game plan, and with the value of the plus money and home court they are my NBA pick for the upset of the day.
NBA Pick: Boston Celtics +170 at The Greek