NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 2, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

The visiting team is looking to win the season series Wednesday night after the home teams have taken the first three matchups this year when those New Orleans Pelicans (32-42, 12-24 away) pay a visit to the Denver Nuggets (32-42, 19-18 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 9:05 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has New Orleans as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +3½ with odds of -105.

Neither of these teams are going to the playoffs this season and they have identical 32-42 records with eight games remaining, but at least the Pelicans appear to be a team on the up-swing as they are already guaranteed to finish with a better record than last season, marking the third straight year that their winning percentage improved over the prior year.

The Nuggets on the other hand have been more disappointing as they will miss the playoffs after making them each of the last 10 seasons, and they are guaranteed to finish with a losing record after finishing with the third best record in the tough Western Conference in their final season under fired Coach George Karl last year. They have even been vulnerable here at home this year after going 38-3 at the Pepsi Center last season, currently sitting at just 19-18 in the altitude.

New Orleans followed up a 96-80 road loss to the San Antonio Spurs by losing at home 102-97 to Sacramento on Monday, but the Pelicans had won five straight games before that, a streak that included wins over the Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets, all of whom will obviously be in the playoffs. Also the Pelican got Anthony Davis back on Monday after he missed the loss to the Spurs with an ankle injury.

Davis made his first All-Star appearance this season and besides leading New Orleans in scoring with 21.3 points per game this season, he has filled out the stat sheet by also leading the club in rebounds (10.3 per game), field goal percentage (52.2 percent), steals (1.4 per game) and blocks (2.9 per game).

The Pelicans have won the last two meetings with the Nuggets, albeit both back home on the Bayou, and Davis was monstrous in the most recent victory on March 9th with 32 points, 17 rebounds (seven of them offensive) and six blocked shots! Needless to say, a healthy Davis improves the Pelicans’ chances of winning this season series as the first road club to break through with a victory.

While New Orleans has continued to play hard, we are not certain that the same can be said about a Denver team not used to not preparing for the post-season at this time of year as the Nuggets have now dropped four straight games. Granted they have faced great competition but the Denver offense has really gone south as of late, averaging 98.3 points over the four-game losing streak after averaging 110.5 points in its previous 11 contests.

Yes, Denver is still a respectable ninth in the NBA in scoring at 103.6 points per game overall, but that is substandard compared to the Nuggets’ great offenses during the Karl era and that scoring average is obviously heading in the wrong direction right now.

We simply get the sense that the Pelicans are a team that wants to finish this year strong while the Nuggets just want this nightmare to end are regroup, so take the points with New Orleans in a very possible upset on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/260797/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pelicans +3½ (-105)