NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, March 12, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 12, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

The cellar dwelling home team is going for the improbable season sweep of a team fighting for a playoff spot Wednesday night when the defending Western Conference semifinalists the Memphis Grizzlies (37-26, 17-12 away) pay a visit to the New Orleans Hornets (26-37, 15-14 home) at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA at 8:05 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has New Orleans as a home underdog for this contest with the current line at +4 with odds of -102.

The Pelicans are in last place in the Southwest Division, although to be fair, they have the best winning percentage at .413 of any last-place team in the NBA. They simply have the bad luck of being in the same division as four teams that would be in the playoffs of the season ended today, including the Grizzlies who are 11 games ahead of them while tied for third. That has not stopped New Orleans from winning the first three meeting with the Grizzlies though!

The Grizzlies made that deep playoff run last season, but they were not even in a position to make the playoffs this season until a dew days ago and they are now tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the last two playoffs spots in the Western Conference, although still a scant one game ahead of the ninth seeded Phoenix Suns.

The Pelican may not have any playoff aspirations this season, but they have are playing well right now as they enter this contest on a three-game winning streak during which that have averaged 118.3 points while scoring at least 111 in each game! The New Orleans offense has been sparked by former overall number one draft pick and now All-Star Anthony Davis and former Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans.

Davis had a monstrous performance in the last New Orleans victory over the Denver Nuggets Sunday with an incredible 32 points, 17 rebounds and six blocks! Meanwhile, Evans has forced his way into the starting lineup after coming off the bench earlier in the year by averaging 22.0 points on 51.1 percent shooting over the last six games.

Davis was also a monster when the Pelicans beat the Grizzlies in Memphis the last time these teams met on January 20th with 27 points, 10 rebounds and four steals, and that win made New Orleans 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings including winning each of the last four encounters and all three matchups this year. Even more impressively, three of those five wins since January of 2013 came in Memphis.

The Pelicans do now have a winning record here at home at 15-14, so it may not be easy for Memphis to continue its playoff surge. This could also be a potential letdown spot for the Grizzlies while playing the second game of a back-to-back after a big 109-99 win last night vs. one of the top teams in the West in the Portland Trail Blazers back in Memphis.

The Grizzlies are again one of the top defensive teams in the league just like last season, but Memphis is struggling for the most part offensively ranking 25th in the NBA in scoring at 96.0 points per game, and one reason why the Grizz have had their problems with the Pelicans is because they have been unable to solve the New Orleans defense, averaging 91.3 points in the three losses this season and a worse 89.3 points in the last six meetings while never topping 98 points,

Now the Grizzlies might be able to eke out a road win here just on desperation alone, but it probably will not be easy so take the points with New Orleans at home on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/258288/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pelicans +4 (-102)

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