NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 15, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

Taking the points could be the prudent move in what could very well be a one-possession game Wednesday night when the Dallas Mavericks (23-16, 9-10 away) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Clippers (26-13, 17-3 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Dallas as a moderate underdog for this contest with the current line at +4½ with odds of -102.

Both of these teams enter this contest riding three-game winning streaks. The Clippers have now had four days off since obliterating their arch rivals the Lakers 123-87 on Friday, signifying the largest margin of victory ever for the Clips over their Staples Center co-inhabitants.

The Mavericks come off of an easy 107-88 win over Orlando on Monday to get to seven games over .500 for the first time since April of 2012, and they are trying to stay in the division race in the brutal Southwest Division as they trail the first place San Antonio Spurs by 7½ games and the second place Houston Rockets by two games. More importantly the Mavs are the seventh seed in the Western Conference.

The Mavericks are over a month ahead of their win pace from a year ago when they did not win their 23rd game until late February, and they have gotten to this point by ranking ninth in the NBA in points scored with 103.1 per game and fourth in field goal percentage at 46.8 percent, and they have been even hotter than that lately, averaging 104.8 points while shooting a blazing 48.6 percent in the last five games.

Furthermore, the Mavericks have gotten hot while being without Shawn Marion as he nurses a shoulder injury, and he is expected to be back for this game after missing the last three contests. Marion has been a stat-filler this season while averaging 11.3 points and leading the team with his 7.2 rebounds, also adding 1.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game.

The Clippers have withstood the loss of Chris Paul thus far with Darren Collison filling in nicely, but the four days off may have come at a bad time for a hot ball club and the Clippers must also guard against a letdown after that emotional 36-point win over the Lakers. Besides, Collison is a natural shooting guard and it remains to be seen how long the Clips can continue to prosper without a true distributor at the point.

The Mavericks are also seeking revenge for a 119-112 loss to the Clippers back in Dallas in the first meeting between these clubs this season, and the absence of Paul plus the Mavs’ recent hot shooting may give them a chance to do so.

At the very least, this game should go down to the wire so Dallas looks to provide good long-term value as a moderate underdog on Wednesday.


NBA Pick: Mavericks +4½ (-102)

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