NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, January 14, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

The team with the best record in the NBA has to guard from looking ahead to a marquee matchup in its next game while facing a hot non-conference foe Tuesday night when the Sacramento Kings (13-22, 4-9 away) pay a visit to those Indiana Pacers (29-7, 18-1 home) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Sacramento as a double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +10½ with odds of -105.

The Pacers have reached their position as the top team in the league with defense, as they lead the NBA in both points against at 87.9 per game and field goal percentage allowed at 40.0 percent, and in a season full of great defensive performances they may be coming off of their best one of all in a 93-69 rout of the Washington Wizards Friday, the fewest points that Indiana has allowed in a game since 2005.

The Kings meanwhile could be a team on the rise despite there 13-22 record, as they were 10-22 before embarking on their current season-high three-game winning streak, primarily keyed by perhaps the hottest player in the NBA that receives relatively little national attention for his efforts in DeMarcus Cousins.

Now, the Pacers have more talent here, but their motivation could be brought to question in this fairly meaningless non-conference contest, as Indiana may have one eye on its nationally televised playoff rematch vs. the suddenly revitalized New York Knicks on Thursday. And this would not be the first time that the Pacers got caught looking ahead, as their only home loss this season came vs. the seemingly outmanned Detroit Pistons with the Miami Heat up next.

Yes, the Pacers have won seven straight home games since the unexpected loss to the Pistons while holding those seven opponents to a mere 79.1 points per game, improving Indiana to 18-1 at home for the season, but a lack of focus here would most likely surface with a lack of intensity on the defensive end. That was the case in the 101-96 loss to Detroit, the only time in the last 15 games that the Pacers have allowed a team to reach 100 points.

The Kings could have a nice chance to be the second team in this span to do so if Indiana is at all lax tonight. Sacramento is coming off of a 124-80 destruction of the Cleveland Cavaliers for its third straight win, during which the Kings are averaging 116.7 points while allowing only 94.0. And despite the lack of national attention, Cousins is a handful for any player in the NBA to handle.

Without much fanfare, Cousins is currently on a streak of 10 straight double-doubles, and he is averaging a double-double for the entire season with 23.3 points and 11.5 rebounds. Furthermore, he is shooting a spiffy 49.4 percent from the field and is playing good defense, averaging 1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks.

And most importantly, although Cousins has been the leader of the team, he has not been a one-man show as Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay, acquired from the Raptors last month, have been adding excellent support.

All things considered, Sacramento appears to offer good long-term value as a double-digit underdog on Tuesday.


NBA Pick: Kings +10½ (-105)

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