NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

There could be a much closer game than the point spread indicates on national television Tuesday night when the Detroit Pistons (2-4, 0-2 away) pay a visit to the Golden State Warriors (4-3, 2-0 home) at Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Detroit as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +9 with odds of -113.

The Pistons were believed to be much improved this season with the acquisitions of Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith during the off-season, although that improvement is not yet reflected in their 2-4 record. Then again, Jennings has missed two games with a painful tooth injury and he is coming off of his best game as a Piston, so look for Detroit to be solid going forward.

The Warriors got off to a typically hot shooting start this year, but that shooting has abandoned them the last two games and they got killed on the glass in a blowout loss at Memphis on Saturday, a problem that may continue to plague them tonight.

The Pistons have lost three straight games since a 2-1 start, although two of the losses came vs. two of the best teams in the NBA in the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. The third loss came last night 109-103 on the road vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, but not all the news out of that game was negative.

Jennings went off for 28 points on 11-for-24 shooting, and he was just one of five Pistons to hit double-figures as the team shot 46.2 percent from the floor in the contest. Detroit is still just 16th in the league in field goal percentage in the early going at 44.7 percent overall, but that is almost certain to go up now that Jennings is in good health.

Jennings does lead the team with his 20.2 points per game over four contests while nicely adding 6.5 assists, 3.2 steals and even 3.8 rebounds per game, and the other key off-season addition Smith is averaging 17.5 points. Add in Greg Monroe’s 18.0 points and 11.2 rebounds and three other players averaging double-digits and it is fairly easy to see why there is optimism in Detroit this season.

The Warriors began the year 4-1 while averaging 110.8 points in those five games, but they have averaged just 82.0 points on 41.6 percent shooting while losing the last two games. Yes, Stephen Curry missed the 76-74 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, but he was back for the 108-90 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies Saturday and shot just 7-of-18 from the floor with the team finishing at only 42.3 percent.

Golden State also lost the rebounding battle to the Grizzlies 44-33 overall, but the real story was that Memphis outscored the Warriors by a phenomenal 54-18 in the paint!

Now the Warriors might resume their winning ways returning home here, but we do not foresee a cakewalk with Jennings in top form for Detroit so take the big points with the Pistons in Oakland on Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/247341/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pistons +9 (-113)

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