NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, April 13, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 13, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Sunday.

The home team is essentially locked into to fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, making it difficult to give double-digits Sunday evening when the team with the worst road record in the NBA the Orlando Magic (23-56, 4-35 away) pay a visit to those playoff bound Brooklyn Nets (43-36, 27-12 home) at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY at 6:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Orlando as a double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +10½ with odds of +100.

The Nets had their 15-game home winning streak snapped by the Atlanta Hawks on Friday while losing their second straight overall, although to be fair they did give point guard Deron Williams the night off in that contest. But there’s the rub, as the Nets have nothing to play for until the playoffs, thus leaving them open to resting their key players with very little notice.

The Magic have actually been quasi-competitive at home this season where this young team has shown nice improvement over recent years while going 19-21, but that youth has reared its ugly head on the road with the league-worst 4-35 road mark, as the Magic’s only road win since December 16th came vs. the Philadelphia 76ers while they were in the midst of their 26-game losing streak. Still, the Nets could do Orlando a big favor here by resting players.

If this game was earlier in the season, the Nets would have the added motivation of revenge after losing to this Magic team in Orlando Wednesday, but that will probably be hardly a thought here as Coach Jason Kidd manages his players’ minutes in preparation for the playoffs. Williams was the only hold-out among the regulars vs. the Hawks Friday, and just his absence alone made a huge difference.

The Nets lost that game 93-88 while shooting just 42.5 percent from the field (34-for-80) and committing 15 turnovers, and that was with Kevin Garnett playing more extended minutes as Kidd prepares him to play about 25 minutes per game in the playoffs. That was just Garnett’s third game back an extended absence, and given his 16 minutes in Orlando Wednesday, it marked the first time he played consecutive games since March 3rd and March 5th.

Garnett and Paul Pierce are prime candidates to sit out tonight, and there is also the possibility that Joe Johnson gets some rest.

The Magic have lost 24 of their last 25 road games, but they do not need to win this game to cash our ticket as double-digit underdogs, and the Nets just might allow Orlando to hang around while experimenting with some lineup combinations. And remember that the Magic have actually beaten the Nets twice in three meetings this season, albeit with both wins coming in Orlando.

Still, look for the Magic to at least be competitive this evening as Brooklyn is more concerned with preparing for the playoffs, so take the big points with Orlando on Sunday.


NBA Pick: Magic +10½ (+100)

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