NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, April 12, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 12, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Saturday.

The home team could be in a letdown spot Saturday night after knocking off playoff-bound teams the last two games with the most recent win coming on the road when the lowly Utah Jazz (24-55, 8-31 away) pay a visit to those Denver Nuggets (35-44, 21-18 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 9:05 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Utah as a double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +10 with odds of -105.

The Nuggets are going to finish with a losing record this season under first-year coach Brian Shaw and miss the playoffs for the first time after a 10-year run, but you would not know it from the last two games when they beat the Houston Rockets here at home and then went on the road and beat the Golden State Warriors in Oakland 100-99 on a shot by Kenneth Faried with 0.5 seconds left.

The Jazz meanwhile are on their way to one of the worst seasons in franchise history, as they are a dismal 3-19 over their last 22 games and appear to be on their way to their lowest win total since the 2004-05 season when they finished at 26-56. It has not helped that Utah has gone 8-31 on the road, although it does own a win here in Denver this season 103-93 back in December.

The Nuggets were quite motivated to play spoilers in those last two games and they face two more playoff teams after this contest to close the season, first visiting Blake Griffin and the Los Angeles Clippers and then finishing the season with a home rematch vs. the Warriors. That makes this game the dead spot in the Denver schedule and we expect the Nuggets to come out rather lackadaisically for this contest, making them risky investments giving this many points.

Also, the Nuggets even have a chance to lose the season series to the Jazz here after losing two of the first three meetings this season while allowing Utah to score 118 and 103 points in the two losses respectively, further proof that the Denver defense is so bad that it is capable of making any offense look good! That defense is 28th out of 30 NBA teams in points allowed at a bloated 106.4 per game.

The Jazz have only beaten the 76ers, Magic and a depleted Pelicans’ team in their last 22 games while getting routed by better teams, but at least those wins demonstrate that Utah is capable of beating lesser clubs and the two earlier wins over the Nuggets with one of those coming in Denver has to give Utah a bit of confidence.

Besides, the Jazz are not even required to win this game to cash this ticket but in fact only need to hang within single-digits, and we feel that is a real possibility here with the Nuggets coming off of two big wins and having two more games bigger than this one coming up next.

Also, a Utah team that is 29th in the NBA in scoring at 94.4 points per game has already solved the Denver defense for over 100 points twice this season, so look for Utah to cover this big spot in the altitude on Saturday.


NBA Pick: Jazz +10 (-105)

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