NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 27, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jan. 27, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

A head-to-head series where the road teams have prospered resumes on Monday night in non-conference play when the Atlanta Hawks (23-20, 8-13 away) pay a visit to the Oklahoma City Thunder (35-10, 19-3 home) at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK at 8:05 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Atlanta as a double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +10 with odds of -108.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are probably the hottest team in the league with the hottest player in the planet, as they have won seven straight games to take over as the top seeds in the Western Conference and Kevin Durant has now scored at least 30 points in 10 straight games including four games of 46 points or more.

With all of that being said, it may not be a cakewalk for the Thunder at home tonight as double-digit favorites over the Atlanta Hawks, especially when you consider that this has been a visitors’ series for the most part in recent years with the road teams going 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.

That includes the Hawks shocking the world be coming here to Oklahoma City last season and pulling the outright upset 104-95. Meanwhile, while the Thunder then won the next two meetings in Atlanta with one meeting taking place last year and the most recent encounter taking place this season on December 10th, both of those wins were by single-digits. In fact, Oklahoma City has never beaten Atlanta by double-digits since moving from Seattle!

Without much fanfare, the Hawks are actually the three-seeds in the Eastern Conference right now although they are no threats to the Big Two, trailing the top-seeded Indiana Pacers by 11 games and the second seeded Miami Heat by 8½. Still, Atlanta has now won three of its last four games following a 112-87 rout of Milwaukee on Saturday, marking its second straight outright road win.

The Thunder’s latest victims were the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday 103-91 as Durant posted a triple-double with 32 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists, and that was one night after sitting out the Friday game in Boston with a shoulder injury. Oklahoma City as a team is now fourth in the NBA in scoring at 105.3 points per game, while its underrated defense ranks seventh in points against at 97.7 per contest.

Still, like most teams, the Thunder have been far from automatic as double-digit favorites going a modest 5-5 ATS in this role including outright losses to Brooklyn and Toronto, both here at home. In fact, Oklahoma City is just 3-5 ATS at home vs. Eastern Conference foes overall this season.

When you add in the general tightness of this head-to-head series, it seems prudent to take the double-digits with Atlanta on Monday.


NBA Pick: Hawks +10 (-108)

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