NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, December 23, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

It is quite possible that the wrong team is a small favorite on Monday night when the New Orleans Pelicans (11-14, 4-9 away) pay a visit to the Sacramento Kings (8-18, 5-10 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 10:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has New Orleans as a tiny underdog for this contest with the current line at +1 with odds of -110.

Yes the Pelicans are still a sub-.500 team that has lost four games in a row while the Kings can be a pesky club at home and come off of a road win at Orlando. That win avoided an 0-4 road trip for Sacramento though and they had lost five of six games overall before the victory.

The Pelicans have visited four difficult venues during their losing streak with the losses coming at Denver, Golden State, the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland, and they took the 23-5 Trail Blazers down to the wire in a 110-107 loss on Saturday, covering the spread as eight-point underdogs.

The way the Pelicans battled the Blazers in the Rose Garden on Saturday has us liking their chances to break the losing streak with this noticeable drop in competition tonight. After all, New Orleans had been a respectable 4-5 straight up on the road prior to the start of this trip, so it is not as if they should be intimidated by playing at a venue where the Kings are just 5-10 on the year.

Also, New Orleans guard Tyreke Evans should be extra motivated making his first trip to Sacramento as a visiting player. Evans spent the first four seasons of his career with the Kings before being traded away to New Orleans during this past off-season, including winning the NBA Rookie of the Year Award during the 2009-10 season.

Evans is certainly in good form while seeking some personal revenge as he filled out the stat sheet quite nicely in Portland with 21 points, six assists and six rebounds. Evans is currently the sixth man in New Orleans because of an excellent backcourt that has Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon as the starters, but all three should see ample playing time.

Now the Kings have historically been a thorn in visiting teams’ sides when playing at this venue and they have even given some superior teams fits here recently, beating the Houston Rockets and barely losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder by two points in recent weeks, but most of their damage is done in an underdog role and the bottom line is that their 5-10 home mark makes them vulnerable as favorites.

The excellent New Orleans backcourt could potentially dominate vs. a Sacramento defense that is 29th out of 30 NBA teams in points against at 103.3 per game and an identical 29th in field goal percentage allowed at 47.3 percent.

Thus, even with this game being on the road, New Orleans seems to present nice long term value on Monday.

[gameodds]5/251036/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pelicans +1 (-110)