NBA Pick for Tuesday's Upset Alert: Play Lakers Money Line Over Pistons

SBR Staff

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 11:31 AM GMT

For our plus money line upset for Tuesday we head to L.A. for the matchup between Lakers & Pistons. Read more to see why you should add the Lakers on the money line for your NBA picks.

Not as bad as it looks
Since the All Star break the Lakers are 3-6 overall while the Pistons are 2-6. Neither team is really setting the world on fire.  But while the record fits the Pistons the Lakers have actually played decent basketball. In those six losses none were by double digits and they have actually been shooting the ball well overall. Since the break the Lakers are sixth in the league in field goal percentage at 46%. In their last three games, all losses, they still shot a respectable 45%. Two of those three wins mentioned were at home where they play significantly better shooting almost 45% compared to their road average of just below 43%. Defensively they have not been as bad as their record as well. In their last three contests they are allowing opponents only 44.4% shooting from the field (better than their overall average) and they are leading the league in that time frame of only allowing 24.5% beyond the arc. Detroit has actually been successful in that beyond the arc category as well the past three games allowing just 24.6%, but that is where the similarities end (getting to that in a moment).  What we like in teams on the plus money line for an upset in NBA hoops is to see if they are moving and sharing the ball. The Lakers are doing that with an average of about 23 assists per game the last three, again, above their average for the year.

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It is as bad as it looks
I like Stan Van Gundy, a lot, but what I don’t like is the trade they made for Reggie Jackson. They were humming right along pretty well and then they tried to get fancy trading for a guy who had one good playoff series.  So far Jackson has played decent but it seems they lost some chemistry and continuity.  Since the break they are shooting one of the worst percentages in the league from the field at 41.8%, as well as one of the worst beyond the arc at 28.6%.  The last three games have been even worse as they are shooting only just slightly above 40% from the floor.  The ball movement is there and they are sharing the ball averaging 22 assists per game the last three, but they simply have been bad putting the ball in the hoop, especially from beyond the arc.  In the last three games Detroit is shooting a league worst for three pointers at 19%.  Neither Detroit nor the Lakers are playing great defense recently as both are averaging allowing about 100 points per contest the past three games.

 

Value and the line
It is not surprising to us that the NBA odds makers have this game at close to a pick with Detroit slightly favored. Their slide has been noticeable. But we think we have the sports books in a tough spot where they have to favor the Pistons based on two things, their record, and the fact they had a really hot stretch this season. To us the value is with the Lakers on the plus money line and we suggest you add them to your NBA pick.

The NBA Pick:  Lakers plus money line at 5Dimes