NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

It may be a lower scoring game than the high total suggests Wednesday night when an also-ran takes on a team that is one loss away from being out of the playoffs when the Detroit Pistons (29-49, 12-26 away) pay a visit to the reeling Cleveland Cavaliers (31-47, 17-21 home) at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 206½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Pistons played the role of spoiler last night with a nice 102-95 road win over the Atlanta Hawks, although Atlanta still appears to be in good shape to snag the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Now technically, the Pistons are in another spoiler role tonight, although the odds of the Cavaliers making the playoffs are so minute that Detroit does not figure to be as enthused about this contest.

You see, the Cavaliers are currently the 10th seed in the East and sit 3½ games behind the Hawks, so the only way Cleveland can make the playoffs is if it wins all four of its remaining games, Atlanta loses all five of its remaining contests and the ninth seeded New York Knicks lose at least three of their last four. Yes, good luck with that!

The Cavaliers lost a big game at Atlanta on Friday and then really saw their slimming playoff hopes get far worse by losing at home to the Charlotte Bobcats 96-94 in overtime on Saturday. Cleveland was only at 82 points at the end of regulation time in that game while ending up shooting just 36.5 percent over the entire contest, and the Cavaliers have now failed to reach 100 points in four of their last five games while scoring 90 or less in regulation twice.

Unfortunately that is not much of an anomaly for a Cleveland team that is ranked 22nd in the NBA in scoring with 97.5 points per game and a woeful 28th in field goal percentage at 43.3 percent. Yes the backcourt of All-Star Kyrie Irving and Dion Walters is trying to do its part, but the frontcourt is struggling to score and the starting forwards Luol Deng and Tristan Thompson and center Spencer Hawes combined to score just 18 points in the loss to Charlotte.

Now the Cavaliers are in the middle of the pack defensively ranking 15th in points against at 101.4 per game, but at least that improves when they play at home where their points against is only 98.7 points. Considering that the Cavs are only averaging 97.8 points themselves at Quicken Loans Arena, it is not surprising that the ‘under’ has gone 23-15 in all Cleveland home games and that combined average of 196.5 points is 10 points less than this posted total!

Yes, we get that the Pistons have been one of the more ‘over’ friendly teams in the NBA with it going 52-26, but that has not been the case in the last two meetings with the Cavaliers where neither team has sniffed 100 points, and Cleveland in fact has failed to reach 100 points in all three meetings with Detroit so far this season.

Interestingly, despite the Detroit ‘over’ hitting at an insane 66.7 percent this season overall, the Pistons are still averaging just 99.7 points when facing conference opponents this year with those games averaging a combined 200.9 points, nearly six points less than this total.

Thus, go ‘under’ what looks like an inflated total in Cleveland on Wednesday.


NBA Pick: Pistons, Cavaliers ‘under’ 206½ (-108)

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