NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, March 5, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There could be an inflated total in a national TV game on Wednesday night when the Dallas Mavericks (36-25, 17-15 away) pay a visit to the Denver Nuggets (25-34, 14-16 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 218 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

The Mavericks are squarely in the playoff hunt despite their 112-106 loss on the road to the San Antonio Spurs when they last played on Sunday, as Dallas is still the seventh seed in the Western Conference with a one-half game lead over eighth seeded Phoenix, but more importantly the Mavs are also just one game from being out of the playoffs, as that is their lead over ninth seeded Memphis.

The Nuggets have no such playoff aspirations, which is disappointing considering they finished with the third best record in the West last season, but another first round elimination in the playoffs at the hands of Golden State resulted in the firing of long-time coach George Karl, and the Nuggets’ first year under first-time head coach has been a disastrous one with the team even going just 14-16 in the altitude of home after going 38-3 here last season.

Now by no means are we expecting a slow-down half-court type of game here, but this bloated total still seems awfully high to us. Yes, the Nuggets are playing no defense these days having allowed 100 or more points in 16 of their last 17 games. And yet, the ‘under’ is still 10-7 in those games due to Denver continually playing to inflated posted totals such as tonight.

You see, while the Nuggets are coming off of a wild 132-128 loss to a Minnesota Timberwolves team that also plays no defense on Monday, that marked just the fourth time in those last 17 games that a Denver game exceeded 218 points (tonight’s total) although there was a fifth game during this stretch that finished with 219 points, bur that contest required overtime vs. Phoenix.

Looking at the entire season, it is the ‘under’ that is 31-28 in all Nuggets’ games this year with all of their games averaging a combined 207.7 points, which while high is still more than 10 points less than this posted total. Also, the two head-to-head meeting between Denver and Dallas this season have produced outputs of 202 and 206 points respectively.

You may have noticed that the Mavericks last game at San Antonio landed right on tonight’s 218-point total, but Dallas has surpassed that 218-point threshold a grand total of 13 times in 61 games this season, and all Dallas road games this year have averaged a combined total of “only” 203.9 points, a shade over 14 points less than this total.

Besides, Denver’s last outburst vs. defenseless Minnesota last game notwithstanding, the Nuggets have been struggling offensively with Coach Shaw still experimenting with how to use his personnel on offense and what style to run, as the Timberwolves’ game snapped a streak of five straight games where the Nuggets failed to reach 100 points.

All things considered, this looks like a total that may be artificially inflated with this game being nationally televised, so go ‘under’ the total in Denver on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/257457/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Mavericks, Nuggets ‘under’ 218 (-103)