NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, February 12, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There may actually be value in the ‘over’ in a game featuring the lowest scoring team in the NBA Wednesday night when the New Orleans Pelicans (22-29, 9-17 away) pay a visit to those Milwaukee Bucks (9-42, 5-20 home) at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 192½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.

The Pelicans have managed to hang in for the most part despite still being without Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson, although that have lost two straight games since a streak where they emerged victorious six times in eight tries. However, those two losses came vs. a couple of teams battling for the playoffs in the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, and they face no such opponent tonight.

Instead they face the team with the worst record in the NBA in the Bucks, team that has won nine games all year while ranking dead last in the NBA in points scored with just 92.2 per game and 20th in points against at 101.8 per contest.

Now the Pelicans are 17th in scoring and 18th in points against, but the average combined score of all New Orleans games this season is 200.9 points, more than eight points above this posted total. And even with the injuries, the Pelicans have managed to score points vs. the weaker teams in the league, as evidenced by the fact that the ‘over’ is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400.

The Bucks certainly qualify as a weak home team with their 5-20 home mark, and former overall number one draft pick Anthony Davis has emerged for the Pelicans this year, earning an All-Star berth while carrying a depleted New Orleans team as of late. Davis has been a beast while averaging 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds per game for the season, and he now has a little bit of help with Tyreke Evans back, with the latter scoring 23 points off the bench in Toronto Monday.

The Bucks come off of an ugly 102-86 loss to the Rajon Rondo-less Boston Celtics where Milwaukee shot 43.1 percent from the floor, which was actually above its season average of 42.2 percent, but sloppily committed 21 turnovers. Keep in mind that the Celtics actually have one of the better defenses in the league though while the New Orleans defense is 24th in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 46.1 percent.

Despite scoring the fewest points in the NBA, the ‘over’ is actually 26-25 in all Milwaukee games this year, mainly because the Bucks usually play to deflated posted totals with their offensive struggles well known. That appears to be the case again tonight, as even with a low combined average total score of 194.0 points in all Bucks’ game this season, that figure is still slightly higher that this posted total.

Thus, the ‘over’ could have some hidden value in Milwaukee on Wednesday.


NBA Pick: Pelicans, Bucks ‘over’ 192½ (-105)

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