NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 29, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

We could be watching an NBA Finals preview on Wednesday and that kind of intensity could keep the scoring down when the Oklahoma City Thunder (36-10, 16-7 away) pay a visit to the Miami Heat (32-12, 19-3 home) at American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 203 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

The Thunder are the hottest team in the NBA with the league’s hottest player in Kevin Durant, as the team has won eight games in a row to overtake the Spurs as the to seed in the Western Conference and Durant now has 11 straight 30-point games including four games with at least 46 points and 41-point effort on Monday vs. the Atlanta Hawks where he hit the winning shot with one second left in a 111-109 win.

The Thunder almost undoubtedly had one eye toward this game during that sub-par effort, and you can bet that this is one game the Heat will show up for also, which is not always the case with a Miami team that often coasts while seemingly bored during the regular season while waiting for the playoffs to start.

Miami certainly showed up in an NBA Finals rematch Sunday as the Heat routed the Spurs 113-101 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score, as Miami had a huge lead before allowing San Antonio to score 30 points in the fourth quarter, although the Spurs never threatened. One characteristic that the Heat have when they get up for games that they do not have in their other games is defensive intensity.

The Heat are actually in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency at 11th overall, but they can be much better than that when they want to be. And with Russell Westbrook still out for the Thunder look for the Heat to throw basically all they have at Durant in an attempt to stop him from upstaging LeBron James in his own building, basically daring the Oklahoma City fringe players to try and beat them.

The Thunder did have their seven-game ATS winning steak snapped with the narrow win over the Hawks, but as mentioned OKC was probably looking ahead so you can expect a much better defensive effort tonight. And with Durant competing with King James for league MVP honors, the Thunder’s defense very often gets overlooked.

The facts of the matter though are that the Oklahoma City defense is ranked seventh in the NBA in points against at 98.0 per game, second in field goal percentage allowed at 42.6 percent and third in defensive efficiency. As great an offense as the Thunder have, they would not be where they are in the standings if not for their great defenders like guard Thabo Sefolosha, forward Serge Ibaka and center Kendrick Perkins.

Add in the expected playoff-like intensity in this contest and we foresee a lower scoring game than this bloated total suggests on ESPN Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/253893/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Thunder, Heat ‘under’ 203 (-107)