NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 1, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be an inflated total in the nation’s capital Monday evening when the Dallas Mavericks (18-13, 7-9 away) pay a visit to the Washington Wizards (14-14, 7-5 home) from the Verizon Center in Washington, DC at 6:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 204½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Wizards have reached the .500 mark by winning five of their last six games, and although it is true that they are averaging 105.8 points in the last five games, it was their defense that got them to .500 by limiting the Detroit Pistons to 12 points in the fourth quarter Monday. They ended up holding Detroit to 43.9 percent shooting for the game.

The Mavericks have also been hot offensively topping 100 points in eight straight games (although one required overtime to do so), but they too have held their last two opponents below 100 points. Also, it seems that these clubs know how to defend each other well, especially here in Washington where the ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings.

As well as the Wizards have been playing lately, they still rank just 17th in the NBA in scoring at 99.6 points per game, and the average combined total of all of their games has been 199.6 points, which is about five points less than this posted total. The defense meanwhile has climbed to the top half of the league to 13th, allowing exactly 100 points per contest.

What is interesting about this game though is the breakdown of the Washington defense, as it is ranked higher in three-point defense in 12th than in overall field goal percentage against at 24th. That means that the Mavericks could have some success inside tonight, but the Wizards could neutralize the Dallas perimeter shooters, which is a key reason to the Mavs’ offensive success.

That is because Dallas is seventh in the league in three-point shooting at 37.8 percent, which has helped the Mavericks run up scores despite ranking in the middle of the pack in pace rating, where they are 12th at 97.5 possessions per game. Taking away their three-point shooting, or at least limiting them in that regard, could actually enable Washington to hold them under 100 points given the moderate Dallas tempo.

Yes, the Mavericks are eighth in the league in scoring at 103.8 points per game and all of their games are averaging 205.8 points, but you can probably shave some points off of both of those averages here if the Wizards continue their fine defensive play on the perimeter. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to 32.0 percent shooting from beyond the three-point arc.

With all of this in mind, the ‘under’ seems to provide long term value at this inflated total on Wednesday.


NBA Pick: Mavericks, Wizards ‘under’ 204½ (-105)

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