NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, December 18, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

The total appears to be a bit inflated in the Peach State on Wednesday night when the Sacramento Kings (7-16, 2-6 away) pay a visit to the Atlanta Hawks (13-12, 9-4 home) at Philips Arena in Atlanta, GA at 7:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 204½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

This seems like a rather bloated total for a game between two teams in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. Yes, the Hawks come off of a 114-100 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday but they were sky high for that contest vs. Kobe & Co. and played their best game of the year while committing only 10 turnovers, a feat that they do not figure to duplicate again tonight.

The Kings are playing the second of a back-to-back following an ugly 95-87 road loss to the Charlotte Bobcats last night where they shot just 37.5 percent from the field and saw their big recent acquisition Rudy Gay leave the game in the third quarter with a knee injury.

The Hawks are 15th in the NBA in scoring at 100.2 points per game and they score many of their points close to the basket where they have a pair of solid big men in Al Horford and Paul Millsap. However, their perimeter shooting has been a bit suspect since trading away Joe Johnson before last year and they are only in the middle of the pack in regards to three-point shooting at a rather ordinary 36.8 percent.

Now we get that the Kings are weak defensively for the most part, but they have now held their opponents under 100 points in back-to-back games as they beat the Houston Rockets 106-91 at home on Sunday prior to the snoozer in Charlotte last night, and Sacramento should know enough to sag its defense inside here and basically dare the Hawks to make some shots from the outside.

It appears as though Sacramento has been playing to inflated totals for much of this season with the ‘under’ going 13-10 in all of its games despite allowing 101.7 points per game overall, and that again looks to be the case tonight. Yes the defense has struggled for the most part before the last two games, but remember that the Kings’ offense is 17th in points scored at only 99.0 points per game while also ranking 24th in field goal percentage at 43.3 percent.

That combined total of 200.7 points per in all Sacramento games is still almost four points below this posted total, and keep in mind that the Kings’ scoring average dips a tad to 98.1 points on the road. Interestingly, that scoring average drops some more when the Kings have played with no rest as this is the sixth time they have played back-to-back games this season and they have averaged only 96.6 points on the back end the first five occasions.

Look for more of the same tonight as these teams sneak ‘under’ the total on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/250534/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Kings, Hawks ‘under’ 204½ (-105)