NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, November 27, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There could be an inflated total in a national TV game Wednesday night when LeBron James returns to his home town as his Miami Heat (11-3, 3-2 away) pay a visit to the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-10, 3-2 home) at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH at 7:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 196½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

The Akron, Ohio native James could be having his best NBA season so far, which is saying a lot considering his past accomplishments, and he has keyed the Heat’s 11-3 start that includes going 10-1 in the last 11 games with the only loss coming to the Boston Celtics on a three-point basket and the final buzzer.

The Cavaliers on the other hand have been disappointments for a team that was considered a possible playoff contender before the year, as they are 2-8 in their last 10 games with the two wins both coming in overtime. All-Star Kyrie Irving is averaging 21.4 points, but he is doing so on 41.0 percent shooting and he is not getting much offensive support.

LeBron is hitting an amazing 60.9 percent of his field goal attempts overall including an almost unfathomable 48.8 percent of his three-point attempts, and he has even improved his free throw shooting to 80.4 percent, and all three of those figures would easily be career highs if he keeps it up. That has helped propel the Heat to a seven-game winning streak with the Phoenix Suns being their latest victims 107-92 on Monday.

What often gets overlooked about the Heat though is their defense, as Miami is seventh in the NBA in points allowed at 96.9 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting and they have allowed a mere 90.4 points per game while holding each of their last five opponents below 100 points, including allowing 92 points or less in four of those games.

However, that fact does not seem to be factored enough in this total in a game where Miami figures to be the only team doing much scoring.

The Cavaliers made some additions during the off-season that were believed to improve them enough to make a playoff run in the weak Eastern Conference, but the moves have not panned out and Cleveland is 24th in the league in both scoring and field goal percentage. Andrew Bynum looks like he still not ready after missing all of last season, while number one draft pick Anthony Bennett is averaging a pathetic 2.0 points on 9-for-42 shooting and 2.7 rebounds.

Also, Tristan Thompson is slumping after a promising start going 7-for-23 over the last three games, while Jarrett Jack and C.J. Miles are both nursing injuries and are questionable for this contest. If they are both out, the team would lose a combined 20.1 points per game from an already struggling offense.

Add this all up and the ‘under’ seems to present good long-term value at this number Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/248347/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Heat, Cavaliers ‘under’ 196½ (-103)

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