NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, November 13, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There is a bloated total in a marquee battle on national TV Wednesday night, but that total may be too inflated giving value to the ‘under’ when the Oklahoma City Thunder (5-1, 2-1 away) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Clippers (5-3, 3-0 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televise nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 208½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

The Thunder have had two days off since needing overtime to edge the Washington Wizards 106-105 on Sunday in a game that was ‘under’ at the end of regulation with 192 points before the overtime pushed it ‘over’ the posted total of 204. That improved Oklahoma City to 5-1 on the season and the Thunder are 4-0 since Russell Westbrook returned from his ACL: injury.

The Clippers have won two straight since beginning the year 3-3, but they had to hold of for dear life Monday to edge the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves 109-107 here at home. The Clippers lead the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points per game while ranking 28th in points allowed at 106.4 points.

So why do we like the ‘under’ here? Well for starters, the fact that the Clippers are generously allowing teams to shoot 47.5 percent from the field has to be killing new Head Coach Doc Rivers, his is a defensive-minded coach that won a championship with the Celtics because his players bought into his system predicated on playing stiff defense, and Rivers especially cannot be happy with allowing113.3 points per game here at home!

It is not as if the Clippers are not capable of playing defense as they finished fourth in the NBA in points allowed last season at just 94.6 points per game, and that was while freelancing quite a bit under the mostly incompetent Vinnie Del Negro. Look for Rivers to get the Clippers to play his way sooner rather than later, and this nationally televised affair with Doc not wanting an embarrassing effort seems like a good place to start.

The Thunder on the other has are playing good defense this year despite allowing 100.3 points per game, as Oklahoma City is actually seventh in the NBA in field goal percentage against at 43.2 percent, a percentage that has dropped to 42.8 percent in the last five games. The only reason the Thunder allow as many points as they do is the pace they play at, as they have a tempo rating of 100.1 possessions per game.

In actuality, the Thunder are sixth in the league in defensive efficiency at just 97.7 points per 100 possessions, and they may not get as many possessions as usual tonight if the Clippers’ Coach Rivers can get into his players’ ears.

Add this all up and while we are not looking for a plodding half-court game by any means, we do expect the teams to come up short of this lofty total on an ESPN ‘under’ on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/247426/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Thunder, Clippers ‘under’ 208½ (-103)