NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

In what could be a surprisingly high scoring game between two winless teams on Wednesday, or at least a higher scoring game than the total suggests, the Utah Jazz (0-4, 0-2 away) pay a visit to the Boston Celtics (0-4, 0-1 home) at TD Garden in Boston, MA at 7:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 185 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -108.

Both of these teams figured to slip a bit this season, although both teams being 0-4 after four games may be a bit of a surprise. The Jazz lost Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson during the off-season, which figured to put a crimp in the offense, and on top of that the prized draft pick Troy Burke has yet to make his NBA debut at point guard due to a broken finger that should keep him sidelined until the end of this month.

The Celtics also underwent a total overhaul trading away Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry to the Brooklyn Nets and even trading their head coach Doc Rivers to the Los Angeles Clippers for a first round draft pick, replacing Doc with Brad Stevens, who is having his first NBA experience after being one of the very best NCAA Basketball coaches in the country during his outstanding stay at Butler that included two NCAA Championship Games.

The Jazz had at least been competitive in their losses before getting blown out by the Nets with all of those former Celtics in Brooklyn to open up this road trip last night, as the first three losses were all by an average of 5.7 points despite facing some stiff competition in the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets. Despite the defections from last year and Burke not yet seeing the court, it is not as if the Jazz have not been capable of scoring points.

Utah currently has four players averaging double-digits, three of whom are averaging 16.8 points or more in Enes Kanter (17.8), Alec Burks (16.8) and Gordon Hayward (16.8). Hayward is a particularly interesting story here as he will be a restricted free agent after the season and he had a nice college career under Stevens at Butler. Could he be anxious to put on a good show in front of his old coach as an open audition to join the Celtics next year?

We think that Utah will be able to score here despite the fact that Boston is ranked fifth in the NBA in points against at 95.0 points per game, as that is somewhat of a fraudulent statistic when you consider that the Celtics rank just 18th in defensive efficiency at 101.5 points per 100 possessions, and that their low scoring averages both for and against are due in large part to ranking dead last in the NBA with a pace rating of 94.4 possessions per game.

The Celtics have played only one home game thus far, and while the Boston offense has failed to top 88 points in road losses at Memphis, Detroit and Toronto, the Celts did score 98 points in their only home game, albeit in a 105-98 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. They are now capable of playing close to that pace again here vs. a Utah defense that is ranked an ugly 24th in defensive efficiency at 103.2 points per 100 possessions.

While we are not calling for an outright shootout in this game, we do expect the two offenses to do enough vs. the two suspect defenses to go ‘over’ this relatively modest total in Boston on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/247033/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Jazz, Celtics ‘over’ 185 (-108)