NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 1, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 1, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be an inflated national TV total with one superstar out Tuesday night when the Houston Rockets (49-23, 20-15 away) pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (39-33, 25-11 home) at the Barclays Centers in Brooklyn, NY at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 209½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -108.

The Rockets’ magic number to clinch a Western Conference playoff spots sits at three but they will be without Dwight Howard for a second straight game due to an ankle injury. Thus, Houston will be without his 18.5 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, and nobody really picked up the slack for his absence last game in a loss to the Clippers.

The Nets are one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference as they seek their 14th consecutive home win, and they can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight with their magic number now at one! Brooklyn could have clinched a playoff spot had the New York Knicks lost on Monday, but New York did not cooperate by winning in Utah.

Now, something that sticks out when looking at Brooklyn’s recent games is that the Nets have gone ‘over’ in seven straight games while scoring over 100 points in all of them. However, it must be noted that the Nets had three straight overtime games on a recent three-game road trip to help that streak along.

Thus, despite the 7-0 ‘over’ run, those seven contests have averaged 203.0 points during regulation time, which is more than six points less than this posted total. Also do not forget that the Nets rank ninth in the NBA in points against defensively at 99.2 points per game and they are just 20th in points scored with 98.7 per contest, and also keep in mind that they are not a running team ranking 25th in the league in pace rating.

In other words the current ‘over’ streak is rather fluky and two of the ‘overs’ during the streak were ‘under’ in regulation time, so we do not expect these score-fests in Brooklyn games to continue.

The Rockets come off of a home loss vs. the Los Angeles Clippers were James Harden did his part with 32 points but no Rocket was able to make up for the absence if Howard. In fact Houston started two players that are not normally in the starting lineup, and center Omer Asik scored just 12 points filling in for Howard while guard Jeremy Lin went just 1-for-9 from the field, scoring eight of his low total of 10 points from the free throw line.

The Nets are good enough defensively to slow down the Houston offense if Harden does not get some help, either by clamping down on him and daring someone else to rise up or by allowing Harden to get his without much fear of the rest of the Rockets’ lineup.

Thus, this does seem like a bloated posted total so go ‘under’ from Brooklyn on TNT on Tuesday.


NBA Pick: Rockets, Nets ‘under’ 209½ (-108)

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