NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, March 25, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, Mar. 25, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Two teams that have a recent history of playing relatively low scoring games against each other square off Tuesday night when the Toronto Raptors (39-30, 18-16 away) pay a visit to the Cleveland Cavaliers (27-44, 15-20 home) at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Bet365 is 194½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Raptors are going for the regular season sweep of the Cavaliers after taking the first two meetings this season, but just as significant from a wagering perspective is that both of those meeting stayed ‘under’ the total, making the ‘under’ 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings and 8-1 in the last nine matchups!

The Raptors are trying to win an Atlantic Division title that few people predicted prior to the season, but their lead over the second place Brooklyn Nets is just two games. Toronto is also in a virtual tie with Chicago for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers meanwhile probably saw any slim hopes they had of making the playoffs so down with the injury to Kyrie Irving, as they are 10th in the East and five games behind Atlanta for the last playoff spot.

If the Raptors do hold off the Nets for the division title, a key reason would be the vast improvement of the Toronto defense over past seasons. In fact the Raptors are now up to sixth in the NBA in points against at just 97.7 per game after a 96-86 win over the Hawks on Sunday. Yes that snapped a streak of four straight games where the Raptors had allowed over 100 points, but two of those contests required overtime to do so.

The reality is that the Raptors have allowed 100 points or less during regulation time in five of their last seven games and Sunday’s contest marked the third time in that span that Toronto has kept an opponent in the 80s. Furthermore the Toronto defense has not slacked off on the road this season where the Raptors are allowing 97.4 points per game on 44.0 percent shooting, actually a tad better than the 44.5 percent shooting they allow overall.

The Raps have been a middle-of-the-road team offensively ranking 17th in the league with 101.0 points per game and they are actually in the bottom half in shooting percentage at 21st at only 44.3 percent.

Irving has missed the last four games for the Cavaliers with a strained bicep and he is expected to remain out until early April. The Cavaliers have gone 1-3 in this stretch without him although the win did come in their last game vs. the Knicks at Madison Square Garden 106-100 on Sunday.

Cleveland received some uncommon performances from its backcourt in that game though with Jarrett Jack pouring in 31 points and Dion Waiters adding 22, and a repeat performance of either accomplishment seems highly unlikely tonight. Granted that does not necessarily mean that the Cavaliers cannot cover or even pull the outright upset, but we do not expect them to hang 106 points on the board again.

With that in mind, look for the uncanny success of the ‘under’ in this head-to-head series to continue for at least one more game on Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/259880/?r-1=43-238-92-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Raptors, Cavaliers ‘under’ 194½ (-110)

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