NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, January 28, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Points could be relatively hard to come by Tuesday night just like most of the times that these teams get together when the Boston Celtics (15-31, 6-17 away) pay a visit to the New York Knicks (17-27, 9-15 home) at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY at 7:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 192 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

The Celtics are reeling right now as they are a meager 2-14 in their last 16 games and 3-17 in their last 20 following an 85-79 loss to the Brooklyn Nets in the game that marked the return of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to Boston for the first time sine being traded during the off-season. Still, despite their struggles in the victory column, the Celtics remained solid on the defensive end while holding the Nets to 39.3 percent shooting.

The Knicks are starting to come around after an awful start and they are now in third place and a reasonable six games behind the first place Toronto Raptors despite being 10 games under .500. But such is life in the weak Atlantic Division where Toronto is the only team playing .500 ball, and just barely so at two games over.

These two teams have had a recent history of playing low scoring games as the ‘under’ is now 10-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings overall, and the only ‘over’ during this streak needed overtime to do so and still produced only 187 points in a game that had a low posted total of 181½! This pattern has continued this season with the first two meetings averaging just a combined total of 181.5 points, over 10 points less than this posted total.

As bad as the Celtics have been, the defense has not been a problem, which is not surprising for a Stevens-coached team. Boston is ninth in the NBA in points allowed at 98.6 per game and, perhaps more pertinent to this game, it is sixth in three-point defense at only 36.7 percent.

The problem has been on offense where the Celtics are ranked 27th with 94.7 points per game, 25th in field goal percentage at 43.7 percent and 28th in three-point shooting at 32.6 percent. Boston was hoping the offense would improve once Rajon Rondo returned, but it is taking a while for Rondo to get back into playing shape, although to be fair he is coming off of his best performance vs. the Nets with 13 points, eight assists and eight rebounds in 30 minutes.

The Knicks have now won two straight games during this prolonged eight-game home stand that began with three losses after beating the Los Angeles Lakers 110-103 Sunday. Still, that leaves the Knicks at 9-15 at Madison Square Garden after they were one of the better home teams in the NBA since Coach Mike Woodson took over in the middle of the season two years ago.

Yes the offense has looked better the last two games, but that required Carmelo Anthony going off for 62 points vs. Charlotte and the Knicks then took advantage of the defensively challenged Lakers. The Knicks are a team that takes as many three-point shots as any team in the NBA with 24 attempts per game, and if the Celtics continue their fine perimeter defense, then New York will have trouble duplicating its last two offensive efforts.

The Knicks are still averaging only 96.9 points per game at home this season so look for the amazing ‘under’ pattern of this head-to-head series to continue for at least one more game Tuesday.


NBA Pick: Celtics, Knicks ‘under’ 192 (-102)

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