NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, January 21, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be an inflated total on Tuesday night in a battle for NBA Northwest Division supremacy when the Portland Trail Blazers (31-10, 15-6 away) pay a visit to the Oklahoma City Thunder (31-10, 18-3 home) at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 215 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

The Blazers are the biggest surprise in the NBA this season, even though they dropped into a tie with the Thunder by losing to the Houston Rockets last night 126-113 in a higher scoring game than we would have liked as we tore up our ‘under’ tickets. Undaunted, we are coming right back with the ‘under’ again tonight with full knowledge that Portland leads the NBA in scoring with 109.6 points per game.

The Thunder have won the Northwest every year since the 2009-10 season and they now finally get a chance to reclaim the top spot after chasing the Blazers most of the season. Yes, being without Russell Westbrook hurts, but the Thunder have still won four of their last five games by turning up the intensity on defense, allowing less than 100 points in four of those five contests.

In fact the Oklahoma City defense is often the most overlooked aspect of a Thunder team that ranks fifth in the league offensively at 105.3 points per game with Kevin Durant leading the NBA in scoring again at an insane 30.6 points per game while working on a streak that currently has him scoring 30 points or more in seven straight games including a 48-point effort and a career high 54-point effort vs. the Golden State Warriors!

However, Oklahoma City also has a couple of the best defensive players in the league at their respective positions in guard Thabo Sefolosha and forward Serge Ibaka, and with much less fanfare, the Thunder are ranked seventh in the league in points against at 98.1 per game and second in field goal percentage allowed at 42.2 percent. We feel that the Thunder will call on that defense here to slow Portland down in probably their biggest regular season game this year.

Now to their credit, the Blazers have gone a combined 4-0 vs. the other two teams that they are battling for the top seed in the Western Conference so far this season, this Thunder team and the San Antonio Spurs, going 2-0 vs. each club. Even more impressive is the fact that the Blazers have already won once on the home court of each of those great teams, including a 98-94 win here at Chesapeake Arena on New Year’s Eve.

However, take note of that final score as the Thunder did a better job of defending the Blazers than most other teams have done this year, holding Portland to just 39.6 percent shooting from the floor. However, they used up so much energy containing a potent offense that no one else besides Durant (37 points) had his shooting legs for the Thunder, who finished at 43.9 percent overall with Kevin finishing with 12 of the team’s 36 total field goals.

Now, the Thunder may or may not get their revenge tonight, but we do expect a similar game stylistically as that last meeting, where the final total score was 23 points than this posted number, so the ‘under’ here is our Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/253293/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Blazers, Thunder ‘under’ 215 (-107)

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