NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, December 31, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

It could be a higher scoring game than the posted total suggests on Tuesday afternoon when the Cleveland Cavaliers (10-20, 2-13 away) pay a visit to the Indiana Pacers (24-5, 14-1 home) in a New Year’s Eve affair from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN at 3:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 195 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -108.

Yes, the Pacers lead the NBA in fewest points allowed, but they have still had some defensive lapses vs. lesser opponents lately such as allowing 91 points on 46.8 percent shooting while still beating the Brooklyn Nets handily 105-91 on Saturday. That followed recent games vs. sub-par teams where Indiana allowed 94 points to Charlotte and 101 to Detroit.

The Cavaliers are going through some turmoil right now with Andrew Bynum recently suspended for “conduct detrimental to the team”, and they have not played much defense all year. The offense has gotten progressively better though, and that has not changed even through all of the recent drama.

While the praise of the Indiana defense is certainly warranted, the Pacers are now also scoring points, topping 100 points in each of their last four games while averaging 107.0 points in those contests! All five Indiana starters are now averaging double-digits in points, naturally led by Paul George who is averaging 23.9 points and 5.8 rebounds. Lance Stephenson in particular is having a breakout season with 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists per contest.

But through it all, the Pacers’ success starts with a defense that is allowing only 89.4 points per game and also leads the NBA in field goal percentage against at 41.3 percent. As mentioned however, the Pacers have turned it down on the intensity level as of late vs. lesser teams, and the Cavaliers would certainly qualify for that category.

The Cavaliers have lost five straight games and seven of their last eight with the only win in that span coming vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the worst record in the NBA, and even that win required overtime. Cleveland has now allowed over 100 points in nine straight games and the Cavs are 26th on the league in points allowed over the entire season at 102.8 per game.

At the same time though, the Cleveland offense has gotten better as Kyrie Irving has come around since his slow start to the season, and as a result the Cavaliers have scored over 100 points in eight of the last 10 games. All tolled, the average combined score of the last 10 Cleveland games has been a whopping 215.1 points, about 20 points higher than this posted total!

Combine that with Indiana’s improving offense and sometimes lax defense vs. teams it knows it should beat lately, and the ‘over’ looks like a solid play at Indianapolis on New Year’s Eve Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/251763/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Cavaliers, Pacers ‘over’ 195 (-108)

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