NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Two teams on nice ‘under’ streaks may play to another one on national TV on Tuesday night when the Los Angeles Lakers (7-7, 1-4 away) pay a visit to the Washington Wizards (5-8, 3-2 home) at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 197½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Wizards are playing well right now having won three of their last four games, and they have tightened things up nicely with all four of those contests staying ‘under’ the total. The offense is taking a big hit tonight though as Bradley Beal has been ruled out after he injured his leg vs. the New York Knicks on Saturday, as he has been experiencing soreness in the leg ever since.

The Lakers may actually be exceeding expectations with their 7-7 start, and they too have buckled down on the defensive end while holding their last four opponents below 100 points. As for those hoping to see Kobe Bryant return tonight, well that is not going to happen either tonight or probably any time on this three-game road trip, with a home date vs. Portland on Sunday a more likely target for his 2013 debut.

Besides Kobe, the Lakers are also still without Steve Nash indefinitely due to a back injury, but that has not prevented their current season-high three-game winning streak, keyed be a surprising defense that going back to their last loss to the Memphis Grizzlies has allowed 92.3 points per game over the last four games. Yes, Los Angeles is still 24th in the NBA allowing 101.9 points per game, but that unit is trending in the right direction.

That improvement should continue tonight vs. a Washington offense ranked 17th in scoring and 19th in field goal percentage, especially with the Lakers’ task made easier by Beal’s absence. Interestingly, the Lakers area actually in the top half of the league in field goal percentage allowed, ranking 12th at 44.7 percent, so part of the reason they are still allowing so many points this season is because they have played at the fourth fastest pace in the NBA.

The Wizards are averaging 99.1 points while ranking 17th in scoring, but the missing Beal is averaging 20.6 of those points. Yes, John Wall is coming off of back-to-back outings of more than 30 points, but the Lakers can now either concentrate their efforts on stopping him or play him one-on-one while allowing him to get his points but daring one of the peripheral Washington players to step up as a bona fide second option.

Neither of those choices bodes well for the Wizards’ offense, so they may have to rely on their defense to win this game and that unit is allowing only 94.0 points per game over the last four contests.

The Wizards have done a good job defensively vs. the more offensive minded Western Conference with the ‘under’ going 4-1 in their last five non-conference affairs, and with the Lakes not quite as dangerous offensively right now as some other Western Conference teams, look for another ‘under’ on Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/248197/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Lakers, Wizards ‘under’ 197½ (-105)