NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, November 5, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Look for a lower scoring game than the posted total may indicate Tuesday night when the defending Western Conference Champion San Antonio Spurs (2-1, 1-1 away) pay a visit to the Denver Nuggets (0-2, 0-1 home) at the Pepsi Center in Phoenix, AZ at 9:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 201 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

The Nuggets are trying change their style of play after being a run-and-gun team for many years, especially under former coach George Karl, who was fired after last season despite winning a franchise record 57 games during the regular season, mainly because the Nuggets then suffered their eighth first-round playoff exit during Karl’s nine-year tenure.

The Spurs meantime bring back basically the same team that took the Miami Heat to seven games in the NBA Finals, although the veteran-laden San Antonio team is also another year older, and perhaps that is the reason the Spurs are also not playing at as fast a pace this year as the last two seasons.

Denver has hired Brian Shaw to replace Karl, and he is trying to implement more of a half-court offense that relies on a presence in the paint and stiff defense. The Nuggets are off to an 0-2 start under Shaw while averaging only 93.0 points, a far cry from the league-leading 106.1 points Denver averaged in Karl’s final year last season.

The defense did look better in a 90-88 loss to the Sacramento Kings opening night, but Denver was then blown out 113-98 by Denver here at home last game, putting end to the Nuggets’ 23-game regular season home winning streak. Shaw’s system is a work-in-progress, but the players seem to be doing their best to buy into it, and why not considering that his five NBA Championship rings have instantly earned him enormous respect in his first stint as a head coach.

Now the Spurs became more of a running team two years ago, further proof of the genius of Coach Gregg Popovich as he realized that was the best way to take advantage of his personnel after stiff defense had been the Spurs’ primary calling card prior to that. As mentioned however, the core of the Spurs team is not getting any younger, so perhaps that is the reason San Antonio currently ranks 13th in pace rating early on after being among the leaders the last two seasons.

The Spurs have still managed to go 2-1 and they are still among the league leaders in shooting percentage ranking fifth at 47.3 percent. However, that is over fewer shots per game than they averaged in recent seasons and they are now facing another team that is trying to slow the pace after running the floor for many years.

Finally, while the Big Three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili is doing its usual part, the Sours have not gotten as much from the fringe players in the this early-early like they have become accustomed to, especially with starting shooting guard Danny Green averaging a measly 3.3 points per game after shooting lights-out in the playoffs last season.

Thus, go ‘under’ the rather high total in Denver on Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/246892/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Spurs, Nuggets ‘under’ 201 (-102)

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