NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 3, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 3, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

It looks like another inflated nationally televised total on the NBA on TNT Thursday night when the Dallas Mavericks (44-31, 19-17 away) pay a visit to the just crowned Pacific Division Champion Los Angeles Clippers (54-22, 31-5 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 212 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -108.

The Clippers clinched their second consecutive Pacific Division title Wednesday night with the combination of Los Angeles winning at Phoenix and the second place Golden State Warriors losing at San Antonio, and this is after the Clippers had never won a division title in franchise history prior to last season!

The win by the Clippers last night also helped the Mavericks as it moves them into a three-way tie with those Phoenix Suns and the Memphis Grizzlies for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference, with Dallas currently in as the seventh seed after tiebreakers and Phoenix currently the odd team out.

The Clippers are trying to complete a season sweep of the Mavericks here after winning the first three meetings this season, with the more recent triumph coming 109-103 in Dallas last Thursday. Los Angeles may also get a nice weapon back for this game with J.J. Redick expected to make his return after missing the last 25 games with a bulging disk in his back. In fact, Redick is expected to immediately be inserted into the starting lineup.

With that being said, while Redick will no doubt be allowed to play for as long as it takes to shake off his rustiness, we question whether or not the other Clipper starters will play their normal minutes now that the division has been clinched and since it would take an unlikely collapse by the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Clippers to be anything other than a three-seed in the playoffs.

The Clips have a safe four-game lead over the fourth seeded Houston Rockets that is effectively five games by virtue of Los Angeles holding the tiebreaker after sweeping all four meetings with Houston this season.

This contest obviously means much more to the Mavericks, but Dallas would not even be in this position if it had just taken care of business during a just concluded eight-game home stand instead of going only 4-4, thanks to an unlucky three overtime losses besides the setback to the Clippers last week in regulation time.

The most recent of those overtime losses was to the Warriors Tuesday where the league admitted after the game that the officials missed a goaltending call on Golden State late in regulation time that would have allowed the Mavericks to emerge victorious with no extra session needed.

There was also an overtime win over Oklahoma City during that home stand, and those four overtime games have all come within Dallas’s last seven games overall. Thus the Mavericks have been playing a lot of basketball lately and they may finally feel some fatigue here now that they have finally left Dallas with this trip to the West Coast.

Those potentially tired Dallas legs combined with the Clippers possibly limiting some minutes of some of their stars could combine to give value to the ‘under’ at this inflated number on TNT Thursday.


NBA Pick: Mavericks, Clippers ‘under’ 212 (-108)

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