NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, March 27, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 27, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

The scoreboard operator could be kept quite busy Thursday night when the Los Angeles Lakers (24-46, 11-24 away) pay a visit to the Milwaukee Bucks (13-58, 8-27 home) at the Bradley Centers in Milwaukee, WI at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 217½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -102.

Both of these teams have been quite ‘over’ friendly this season as the ‘over’ is 41-29 in all Lakers’ games and 40-31 in all Milwaukee games. That is not surprising in the case of Los Angeles as it is ranked 29th in the NBA in points against while ranking in the top half of the league offensively in 12th at 102.3 points per game.

The ‘over’ success of the Bucks may be more surprising as Milwaukee is 28th in the NBA in scoring with only 95.3 points per game, but the combination of ranking 25th on points against at 103.5 per game and usually playing to deflated posted totals was a boon for the ‘over’ earlier on, and lately the offense has picked things up quite nicely while books have seemed to be a tad slow in adjusting Milwaukee totals.

You see, when the Bucks scored 98 points vs. the “other" team from Los Angeles, the Clippers, in a loss Monday night, it snapped a streak where Milwaukee had scored at least 107 points in three straight games. Furthermore that is starting to become a more common occurrence as of late as the Bucks are now averaging 104.1 points per game in their last 17 games while exceeding 100 points 11 times in those contests, with the ‘over’ going 12-5.

The other part of that equation is that while the offense has improved, the defense has been as pathetic as it has been all season over that span allowing 108.9 points per game including allowing over 100 points in 15 of the 17 games and 98 points in one of the ‘good” games! That lax defense is the primary reason why it is the Bucks that still have the worst record in the NBA right now by two full games despite the Philadelphia 76ers being on a 25-game losing streak.

There is really no reason to believe that the Bucks will play better defensively with the Lakers in town tonight. But then again, the same things can certainly be said about Los Angeles.

Not only are the Lakers allowing an atrocious 108.4 points per game in all games this season, but that average rises even further to 109.9 points on the road! As you might expect from a club coached by Mike D’Antoni, the Lakers are second in the NBA in pace rating with their goal being to get off more good shots than the competition, thus treating defense as an afterthought.

And that has certainly been the case for most of the season and even more so lately, as the last 10 Laker games have averaging a whopping combined total of 229.2 points, about 12 points more than this seemingly high total.

As large as this total is, it actually seems light considering those last 10 games for the Lakers, and with even Milwaukee resembling Los Angeles stylistically as of late, we recommend going ‘over’ the big total on Thursday.

[gameodds]5/260139/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Lakers, Bucks ‘over’ 217½ (-102)

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