NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 13, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 13, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

It could be a relatively low scoring game with only one team doing most of the scoring in the final NBA game before the All-Star Break Thursday night when the Oklahoma City Thunder (42-12, 19-9 away) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Lakers (18-34, 8-15 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 206 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Thunder came away with a big road win in a fairly low scoring affair vs. the Portland Trail Blazers 98-95 in an easy ‘under’ as this team continues to play to inflated totals despite have one of the better and apparently more underrated defenses in the league. In fact, all Oklahoma City games are averaging a combined 202.4 points this season, an average that drops to 201.3 points on the road.

Thus, this looks like another inflated total tonight considering that the Lakers are putting a D-League lineup on the court these days and they are down to 15th in the NBA in scoring and sinking fast.

That is because in the last two games, the Lakers put up 86 points in a loss to the Chicago Bulls and 79 points in a loss to the Utah Jazz, shooting 43.9 percent and 38.8 percent from the floor respectively in the two losses. And worst of all, both of those losses came here at home at the Staples Center!

Then again, that lack of offensive production is not surprising considering that Los Angeles started center Chris Kaman and cast-off forwards Wesley Johnson and Shawne Williams last game to go along with a veteran backcourt of Steve Nash and Steve Blake. Furthermore, the two veteran guards were both injured vs. the Jazz and Nash is confirmed out for this game, although Blake is probable after hyper-extending his arm.

Still, there is no reason to expect any improvement from the offense tonight vs. the staunch Thunder defense.

Sure the Thunder are fifth in the NBA in scoring with Kevin Durant and his 31.2 points per game leading the league, but Oklahoma City would not be in its position as the top seed in the Western Conference if not for its defense. The Thunder are fifth in the NBA in points against at 97.5 per game, second in field goal percentage allowed at 42.9 percent and third in defensive efficiency!

Yes Oklahoma City averages 104.9 points offensively, but it figures to be the only team doing much scoring here, making the ‘under’ look very attractive at what looks like an inflated number on Thursday.


NBA Pick: Thunder, Lakers ‘under’ 206 (-105)

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