NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 14, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Monday, Apr. 14, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

It could be a bit of a higher scoring game than the posted total indicates Monday night when the Orlando Magic (23-57, 4-36 away) pay a visit to the Chicago Bulls (47-33, 26-14 home) at the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 184 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -102.

The Magic enter this contest with the worst road record in the NBA at 4-36, although they did cover as road underdogs for us vs. the Brooklyn Nets in the first game of this back-to-back on Sunday. Interestingly, one of those four straight up road wins did come here in Chicago, although that was way back on December 16th.

The Bulls are battling the Toronto Raptors for the three-seed in the Eastern Conference, with the teams currently in a virtual tie but Chicago being the fourth seed at the moment with the Raptors holding the tiebreaker. The Raptors cannot lose that tiebreaker edge either as they are the Atlantic Division Champions, meaning that the Bulls must actually finish ahead of Toronto to gain the third seed.

And that was the case entering play on Sunday, but the Bulls blew their chance to maintain their seeding after Toronto had won earlier in the day as Chicago suffered a bad 100-89 loss to a New York Knicks team that has been eliminated from playoff contention. That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Bulls, but it still cannot have come at a worse time as Toronto is now that team that controls its destiny.

Now, the Bulls simultaneously lead the NBA in fewest points against at 91.8 per game while ranking dead last in points scored with 93.6 per contest, a combination you would think would be conducive to a great ‘under’ record. And that ‘under’ record is indeed very good at 47-33 overall and an even better 27-13 here at home.

However, as usually happens, the oddsmakers have adjusted by lowering the Chicago totals and we just feel that they may have simply overcompensated in this case. You see, that Bulls’ defense may be wearing down a tad after allowing 98 and 100 points respectively the last two games and it does not get a chance to rest a bit with Chicago now playing the second game of a back-to-back.

Also keep in mind what happened the last time these clubs got together when 202 total points were scored during regulation time before Chicago went on to a 128-125 victory in triple overtime. The Magic went 53-104, 51.0 percent from the field over those seven periods, and as bad as their road record is, they are still capable of taking advantage of a tired defense.

Besides Orlando is allowing 101.9 points per game defensively overall this season, an average that has climbed to 102.6 points on the road where Magic games are averaging a combined 195.4 points, over 11 points higher than this posted total.

Thus, go ‘over’ this rather low posted total in the Windy City on Monday.

[gameodds]5/261857/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Magic, Bulls ‘over’ 184 (-102)

comment here