NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, March 17, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Monday, Mar. 17, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

There seems to be an inflated total in what looks like a contrast in styles Monday night when the Phoenix Suns (38-28, 16-15 away) pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (33-31, 20-11 home) at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY at 7:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 207½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

The Suns certainly favor a fast pace as they are simultaneously sixth in the NBA in scoring at 105.4 points per game and 25th in points allowed at 102.9, with a large part of that being due to ranking sixth in the league in tempo rating. That style works for them though as they have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the NBA, although they now trail the Memphis Grizzlies by one game for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.

Phoenix may not get its desired pace in this game however as the Nets are on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 26th in tempo rating. That has helped Brooklyn rank eighth in the league in points against at 98.9 per game but also has the Nets at just 22nd in points scored at 97.4 per contest. However, just like the Suns’ style suits Phoenix, the Nets plodding pace has them as the sixth seed in the East and they have one of the best records in the NBA since New Year’s Day.

The Nets had a three-game winnings streak snapped with a 101-94 road loss to the Washington Wizards on Saturday, but that could have been a letdown spot after going into Miami in their previous game and upsetting the Heat 96-95 as nine-point underdogs! The loss at Washington also snapped a streak of eight straight games where Brooklyn had allowed fewer than 100 points, with the Wizards just barely eclipsing that total.

Even with that loss, the Nets remain a very solid 23-10 since January 1st under rookie head coach Jason Kidd.

The Nets were able to control the pace the first time these clubs met this season in Phoenix in a 100-98 Brooklyn win in overtime in a game that saw only 184 points scored during regulation time (92-92), so there is no reason to believe that the Nets cannot control the tempo again while now playing at home.

In fact, it is the ‘under’ that is 7-5 this season when the Suns have visited Eastern Conference opponents, such as in their excruciatingly slow paced 87-80 win over the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on Friday. The fact that they won that game though and that they are actually 8-4 straight up in their road treks vs. the East shows that the Suns are not totally uncomfortable in a half-court style when the situation warrants it.

That speaks to the ability of the versatile Phoenix point guard and notable All-Star Game snub Goran Dragic, who leads the club on both scoring (20.5 points) and assists (6.1) and is adaptable to any style while also leading the club in field goal percentage at a blistering 50.9 percent.

Thus, while it is not their preferred style, do not look for the Suns to force the pace too much while the Nets run their plodding, methodical offense designed to take a lot of time off the clock, so go ‘under’ in Brooklyn on Monday.

[gameodds]5/258932/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Suns, Nets ‘under’ 207½ (-107)

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