NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 24, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Monday, Feb. 24, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

There could be an inflated total on a national TV game on Monday night when the Dallas Mavericks (34-23, 16-14 away) pay a visit to the New York Knicks (21-35, 12-18 home) at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY at 7:35 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 205½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -101.

These two teams certainly appear to be heading in opposite directions lately on the surface. The Mavericks have kicked off this three-game road trip vs. the Eastern Conference with two wins although beating the Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons on the road may be easier for Dallas than winning in New York, as the Mavericks have lost their last two trips to Madison Square Garden.

The Knicks meanwhile have now lost five of their last six games after blowing an 18-point lead in the second half of a 107-98 road loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday which ended a 1-3 road trip. The Knicks are now seeded 11th in the Eastern Conference, although hope is not lost for them as they are a manageable 5½ games out of the eighth and final playoff spot with no real powerhouses ahead of them for that spot.

But what has caught our eye in this game is the bloated total, which may be inflated in anticipation of the slightly heavier volume for national TV games. You see, the aforementioned last two losses for Dallas in New York came in games that totaled 198 and 201 points respectively, and do not forget that the Knicks also upset the Mavericks in the first meeting this year in Dallas by just a 92-80 score, with those 172 points being 33 points less than this total!

Now, we get that the Mavericks are simultaneously seventh in the NBA in scoring and 24th in the league in points allowed, but yet the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has only split 15-15 in Dallas road games this season with those contests averaging a combined 203 points, which is still two points less than this posted total.

The difference is much bigger when looking at Knicks’ home games though, as those contests are averaging a combined 198.5 points with New York scoring only 98.5 of those tallies. The collapse in Atlanta Saturday also marked the sixth time in the last seven games that the Knicks failed to exceed 100 points in regulation time, as even their lone win in that stretch was by only a 98-91 score over the Pelicans in New Orleans.

The difference between the Knicks’ team this season and the one that won the Atlantic Division last year is the this year’s model is not shooting the ball well despite boasting the defending NBA scoring champion in Carmelo Anthony, who is second in the league in scoring this season. Despite his exploits, New York is just 21st in the league in points scored overall at 97.7 per game and 20th in field goal percentage at a measly 44.4 percent.

Anthony has simply not gotten any support from his teammates offensively for the most part, and when you combine that with the scores from the recent meetings between these clubs, the ‘under’ looks like the play in New York City on Monday.


NBA Pick: Mavericks, Knicks ‘under’ 205½ (-101)

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