NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 10, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

The pace may be faster than the home team is accustomed to Monday night when the Denver Nuggets (24-25, 10-14 away) pay a visit to the team with the best record in the NBA, the Indiana Pacers (39-11, 24-2 home) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 199½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.

The Pacers have achieved their lofty heights with defense, as they lead the NBA in both point against (90.7 per game) and field goal percentage allowed (41.4 percent) this season and have now had the best defense in the league for several seasons. However, they still seemingly cannot solve the Denver offense as one of their worst defensive outings this year came in a 109-96 loss at Denver on January 25th.

The Nuggets have gone back to playing the run-and-gun style they played for many years under former coach George Karl, as new coach Brian Shaw has basically given up on trying to install more of a half-court offense with an increased emphasis on defense as he tried to do at the outset of the season without success, and as a result Denver is now back to its more customary ranking of second in the NBA in pace rating, and it seems inevitable that they will take over the lead.

While the Nuggets turned their season around at first by winning five straight games immediately after Shaw cut the offense loose, they have now regressed by going 4-7 in their last 11 games and they are playing absolutely no defense, allowing over 100 points in seven straight games and in 12 of their last 13 contests, culminating with a 126-109 loss to a Detroit Pistons’ team Saturday that then fired its coach Maurice Cheeks yesterday.

That has dropped Denver to 28th out of 30 NBA teams in points against at 103.9 points per game, but they are also now up to 10th in scoring at 103.8 points and still climbing. Most incredibly, the Nuggets have probably had the most success vs. the Indiana defense of any other team since Frank Vogel became the Pacers’ coach, averaging 108.3 points in six meetings including topping 100 points five times.

The Pacers should be in an ornery mood after getting upset 93-92 by the Orlando Magic after uncharacteristically allowing 29 fourth-quarter points last night, but that may manifest itself in Indiana actually scoring more points than usual vs. the reeling Denver defense.

Indiana remains just 20th in the NBA in scoring at 98.6 points per game, but they have had some much higher scoring games lately, particularly vs. Western Conference opponents such as in a big 118-113 overtime win over the Portland Trail Blazers the last time the Pacers played here at home on Friday. In fact the Pacers may have suffered a letdown from that marquee win in the loss at Orlando Sunday.

The Pacers have also has no trouble scoring on the Denver defense during the Vogel era, as the 109-96 loss a couple of weeks ago was only the second time in the six meetings vs. the Nuggets under Vogel that they failed to score over 100 points, with the ‘over’ going 5-1 in those games.

Look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game with these teams going ‘over’ in Indianapolis on Monday.

[gameodds]5/255271/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Nuggets, Pacers ‘over’ 199½ (-105)