NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 20, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Despite two potent offenses, the posted total may be inflated in a national TV game on Monday Night when the surprising Portland Trail Blazers (31-9, 15-5 away) pay a visit to the Houston Rockets (27-15, 16-6 home) at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 217½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +100.

Nobody expected the Trail Blazers to be 31-9 at this point of the season and only one-half game behind the defending Western Conference Champion Spurs for the top seed in the Western Conference, a top seed Portland would have to itself if it wins tonight by virtue of a huge win at San Antonio Friday! Yet here the Blazers are while leading the NBA in scoring at 109.6 points per game.

The Rockets were actually the favorites to win the Southeast Division prior to the season despite being in the same division as the Spurs thanks to the signing of Dwight Howard, and although they trail San Antonio by five games, many teams would be quite happy with a 27-15 record at this point.

This is actually the third straight game for the Blazers in Texas, as they avoided a letdown after beating the Spurs by beating the Mavericks rather easily in Dallas 127-111 on Saturday. That marked Portland’s fifth straight win overall and improved the Blazers to 15-5 on the road, and they are averaging 113.2 points during the winning streak.

With all of that being said, Saturday’s win over the Mavs was the only win during the winning streak that would have gone ‘over’ tonight’s posted total, which is no doubt partially inflated because this is a TNT game between two of the top five scoring teams in the league. You see, for all of the Blazers’ scoring prowess and a seeming disregard for defense while allowing 102.9 point per game, that still adds up to “only” 212.5 total combined points per game.

We say “only” because as lofty as that total is, it is still five points less than this posted total.

The Rockets are fifth in the NBA in scoring at 105.1 points per game while allowing 101.8 points per contest, but again, that combined average of 206.9 points is even less than the average Portland score and nearly 11 points less than this posted total. Furthermore, the Rockets have actually played some defense at home allowing 97.9 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting at the Toyota Center.

Moreover Houston has cut that field goal percentage allowed to just 43.9 percent over the last five games overall regardless of the venue, which is probably what the Rockets expected on a more regular basis after signing Howard to man the middle.

Thus, while this will by no means be a defensive struggle, do expect the teams to reach this rarified total either on Monday night on TNT.

[gameodds]5/253153/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Blazers, Rockets ‘under’ 217½ (+100)