NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 13, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

In what could be a higher scoring game than the low posted total suggests north of the border Monday night, the Milwaukee Bucks (7-29, 4-15 away) pay a visit to the Toronto Raptors (18-17, 8-8 home) at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 186 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -106.

The hot Raptors finally went one game over the .500 mark with a win over the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday, and in the land of mediocrity that is the Atlantic Division, Toronto’s 18-17 record is good enough for first place and a four-game lead for the only team in the division playing winning basketball.

The Bucks are playing the polar opposite of winning basketball as they are on course of the number one draft pick in the NBA Draft following this season with a league worst record of 7-29 thanks to ranking second to last in the NBA in scoring at 91.6 points per game. However, the posted total is so low in this game that even that low average could push this game ‘over’ with a normal effort from Toronto.

You see, the Raptors are 11-4 with an improved offense since trading away Rudy Gay on December 9th. In addition to trading away an overrated, underperforming “star’ in Gay, the Raptors acquired Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, Greivis Vasquez and John Salmons in that deal, overnight giving Toronto one of the deepest and most potent benches in the NBA.

Of course, it also helps that incumbent DeMar DeRozan is averaging a career high 22.3 points, and while Toronto is ranked 18th in the NBA in scoring at 98.7 points per game overall, that average has risen to just a tick under 100 points at 99.9 since the trade as the deep bench means that the Raptors now practically have legitimate scoring options on the floor at all times.

The Bucks are just 1-8 in their last nine games with the lone win being a road upset of the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staple Center on New Year’s Eve 94-79. Unfortunately, that defensive effort was an aberration for a Milwaukee team that is allowing an even 100.0 points per game overall and an even worse 102.0 points on the road, with that effort in LA notwithstanding.

Because of that porous defense on the road, the ‘over’ has actually gone 11-8 in all Bucks’ games away from home despite their offensive difficulties, and most of those ‘overs’ were vs. much higher posted totals than this seemingly small number.

Now, this game may not be a shootout, but given that even 190 points would be good enough to cash his ticket, we recommend the ‘over’ in Toronto as our Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

[gameodds]5/252793/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Bucks, Raptors ‘over’ 186 (-106)