NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 6, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jan. 6, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

It could be a relatively low scoring game Monday night when the Atlanta Hawks (18-16, 6-11 away) pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (12-21, 7-8 home) at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY at 7:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 198½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -104.

The 12-21 Nets are looking to match their season high here with their third straight win, as they went into Oklahoma City last week and shocked the Thunder 95-93 before following that up with an 89-82 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. The Nets still did not shoot the ball particularly well in either victory though, hitting only 44.3 percent of their field goal attempts vs. the Thunder and 43.7 percent vs. Cleveland.

The Hawks enter this contest having lost three of their last four games with the only win being when they overcame an 18-point deficit and won by one point 92-91 at Boston on New Year’s Eve. While the Hawks are averaging 102.6 points on 46.1 percent shooting for the season, they have seen that shooting percentage drop all the way down to 40.8 percent over the last five games.

Brooklyn may be on a small winning streak, but it is also on another streak that has seen it fail to reach 100 points in four straight games and in six of the last seven contests while averaging just 90.7 points over those seven affairs. Losing leading scorer Brook Lopez for the season was a big blow and now the Nets could also potentially be without All-Star point guard Deron Williams for this contest, as he is questionable with an ankle injury.

Even when fully healthy, the Nets play at a slow pace ranking 25th in the NBA with a tempo rating of 94.2 possessions per game, and they might play even slower if Williams is indeed out as the last thing they would want to do is pick up the tempo with a probably outmanned roster.

Another side effect of playing so slow is the Nets have been covering up a defense ranked only 28th in the league in efficiency, as the 101.5 points per game Brooklyn is allowing would be a lot worse at a more “normal” pace.

The Hawks latest defeat came by a 91-84 score on the road vs. the Chicago Bulls on Saturday where Atlanta shot a terrible 37.2 percent from the field. That was just the latest poor shooting night in the last five Atlanta games, over which the Hawks are averaging fewer than 100 points at 99.2.

Now, that shooting percentage could rise a bit here considering the Nets are allowing opponents to shoot 46.7 percent when playing in Brooklyn, but that may not necessarily lead to an increase in scoring due to the Nets’ propensity for slowing down the pace.

That is a key reason why the last seven Brooklyn games have averaged a combined 188.4 points, about 10 points less than this posted total.

With all of this in mind, the ‘under’ seems to present long-term value in Brooklyn on Monday.


NBA Pick: Hawks, Nets ‘under’ 198½ (-104)

comment here