NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, December 23, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Monday, Dec. 23, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

It could be a higher scoring game than the total implies in a contest between two losing teams Monday night when the New York Knicks (8-18, 4-8 away) pay a visit to the Orlando Magic (8-19, 5-8 home) at the Amway Center in Orlando, FL at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 192 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -102.

To say that these teams are accustomed to playing high scoring games against each other would be an understatement as the ‘over’ is an amazing 13-1-1 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings, including a 121-83 Knick blowout this season on December 6th. There is really no reason to expect anything different here even with the teams having losing records.

That is because both of these defenses are vulnerable enough to make opposing offenses look better. The Magic are allowing 100.7 points per game mainly due to ranking 26th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Knicks meanwhile are only 18th in three-point defense and 23rd on field goal percentage allowed overall at 46.5 percent.

The Knicks certainly have the offense to take advantage of the generous Orlando defense, as they still have the reigning league scoring champion in Carmelo Anthony and while the are only shooting 34.8 percent from beyond the three-point arc, they make up for it with volume as they are making a good 8.9 three-pointers per game. Granted, the New Yorkers could still be without injured point guard Ray Felton, again leaving Beno Udrih to fill in at the point.

That could actually be an added boon to the ‘over’ though as Udrih is a terrible defender while at the same time providing adequate offense, as he has averaged 12.3 points, 5.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds in his last three fill-in starts. Granted the New York defense should get a lift by the return of Tyson Chandler, but that is offset by the loss of Kenyon Martin to an abdomen injury, leaving the Knicks lacking in interior toughness.

The Magic have lost 10 of their last 12 games usually do to some shoddy defense, but the offense might get a lift now that Tobias Harris is healthy again, averaging 17.5 points in the last two games. He gives Orlando a bona fide second option to leading scorer Arron Afflalo, and do not forget about the Magic’s walking double-double in Nikola Vucevic and also first round draft pick Victor Oladipo, all of who give Orlando a nice nucleus for the future.

The Magic have the pieces so put up some points here and take advantage of Martin’s absence, whose defensive ability is the main reason he still has a job in the NBA with his knee injuries taking a toll on his offense.

Add this all up and this game could easily approach 200 total points just like most of the meetings between these teams, resulting in a rather safe ‘over’ on Monday.

[gameodds]5/251028/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Knicks, Magic ‘over’ 192 (-102)

comment here