NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, December 9, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

The visiting team could win the Battle of the Tempos to set up an ‘over’ Monday night when those Golden State Warriors (12-9, 6-7 away) pay a visit to the Charlotte Bobcats (9-11, 5-6 home) at Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, NC at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 195 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -108.

It will certainly be a nice contrast of styles in this game with the run-and-gun Warriors shooting 47.0 percent from the field this season and playing no defense lately, while the defensive-minded Bobcats are limiting opponents to 41.2 percent shooting while ranking last in the NBA in scoring offensively.

With that being said, the Warriors have managed to top 100 points in each of the last four head-to-head meetings with the ‘over’ going 3-1 in those games including 2-0 here in Charlotte, and that includes two meetings last season where the Warriors scored 115 and 104 points respectively.

The Warriors are still without their big off-season acquisition Andre Iguodala, who has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury and is out again here, but they have not needed him while scoring at least 108 points in two of those three games he missed, and they got a great tune-up for this game by facing a great defensive team on the road on Saturday and putting up 108 points at Memphis!

The reason why great defense does not bother the Warriors much is because they are able to shoot over most teams with their great three-point shooting, an area where they lead the NBA with their blistering 42.7-percent success rate, and they are also fourth in the league in field goal percentage overall at 47.0 percent.

Unfortunately Golden State has been giving up points just as fast as it has scored them lately as Saturday’s contest snapped a streak of eight straight games where the Warriors allowed over 100 points. Their last five games has been a nice microcosm of their season as they are averaging 106.0 points on 46.4 percent shooting in those contests but allowing an unacceptable average of 103.2 points.

Now the Bobcats are last in the league at 89.6 points per game, but they have topped that figure in three of their last four games and they had what for them is a major outburst in a 105-88 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday.

That does point to the fact that the youthful Bobcats are capable of scoring points vs. bad defenses, and the Warriors certainly figure to give Charlotte every chance to succeed because of Golden State’s style that has the Warriors ranked seventh in the NBA with a pace rating of 98.6 possessions per game. The Bobcats are down in 24th in that category, but as we alluded to earlier, the Warriors have been able to draw Charlotte into playing their pace in recent meetings.

Expect more of the same tonight with the three-point shooting of Golden State being the key, so with this total set at decidedly less than 200, look for another Warrior ‘over’ in Charlotte on Monday.

[gameodds]5/249566/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Warriors, Bobcats ‘over’ 195 (-108)