NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, November 25, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Monday, Nov. 25, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

The total may be a bit light in a matchup between two teams not exactly known for offense Monday, potentially giving value to the ‘over’ when the Boston Celtics (5-10, 3-6 away) pay a visit to the Charlotte Bobcats (7-7, 3-4 home) at Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, NC at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 185½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.

This is not the dreadful Bobcats team of recent years as this team has some good young talent and added a bona fide scorer when it acquired Al Jefferson from Utah in the off-season. Jefferson has played in only five games thus far though due to an ankle injury, but he seemed fine while scoring 19 points in a road win at Milwaukee on Saturday, bringing Charlotte to a surprising 7-7 on the year.

The Celtics are having an up-and-down season with many new faces on the roster and a first-year NBA head coach in Brad Stevens, who had amazing success in college at Butler. Boston began the season 0-4, then won four straight to get back to .500, then lost six games in a row and may have begun a new streak by snapping that skid with a 94-87 road win in Atlanta on Saturday.

The Bobcats are toward the bottom of the league in scoring in fact ranking just 28th with 89.6 points per game, but that average can be expected to go up now that Jefferson is either in or close to good health. A healthy Jefferson joins four players that are averaging double-digits in Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Ramon Sessions and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, with Henderson being the only real veteran of that group.

Thus the young Cats have a bright future with the veteran Jefferson adding a big, physical presence up front that they lacked last season, as well as this year in the nine games that he missed. It bears mentioning that Charlotte has scored a few more points at home, averaging 90.6 points, and again that number figures to get a boost with Jefferson in the lineup.

Similarly, the overall offensive numbers may not tell the whole story for a Boston offense that also appears to be on an upswing. The Celtics are averaging 92.7 points per game to rank just two spots above Charlotte in 26th in scoring, but Stevens has been tinkering with his lineup with point guard Jordan Crawford and center Jared Sullinger taking on expanded roles.

Crawford is starting to flourish in Stevens’ system as both a scorer and distributor, as he had 12 points and 10 assists in the win in Atlanta and is now averaging 16.0 points in the last three games. As for Sullinger, if you disregard one game in Minnesota where he played only 13 minutes, he would be averaging 16.6 points and 9.6 rebounds over his last five games.

Finally, note that Charlotte home games have averaged a combined 185.5 points this season, which is exactly where this total is set at, and Boston road games have averaged 188.2 points. With both offenses showing signs of improvement, go ‘over’ in Charlotte on Monday.

[gameodds]5/248149/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Celtics, Bobcats ‘over’ 185½ (-105)

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