NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, November 18, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Monday, Nov. 18, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Expect the ‘under’ to prevail in a clash of tempos Monday night when the plodding Memphis Grizzlies (5-5, 2-3 away) pay a visit to the faster paced Los Angeles Clippers (7-3, 5-0 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 199½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -108.

The head coach has changed but the style has not for the Grizzlies, who won 56 games during the regular season last year and ultimately advanced to the Western Conference Finals by playing a very methodical offense and playing stiff defense under Lionel Hollins, and they have continued to do the same under first year head coach David Joerger. Then again, that is no surprise considering Joerger was the team’s defensive specialist as lead assistant to Hollins.

The Clippers on the other hand have gone from ranking fourth in the NBA in points against last season to ranking 28th in that category in their first season under Doc Rivers, but they also lead the NBA in scoring, accounting for the 7-3 record and a ton of high scoring games with the ‘over’ also going 7-3. Thus, something has to give here and although this game is in Los Angeles, we see the Grizzlies controlling the tempo.

Memphis comes off of a 97-86 road win vs. the Sacramento Kings last night where they held the Kings to 37.9 percent shooting. The Grizzlies may not rank as highly defensively yet as they did last year when they led the NBA in points against, but they are certainly trending that way again under Joerger as they are currently sixth allowing 96.7 points per game on 45.3 percent scoring.

Furthermore the Grizzlies are only getting better as they have allowed 100 points just once in the last seven games while allowing 90 points or less four times in that span including allowing exactly 86 points in each of the last two games. At the same time it has been a struggle offensively for Memphis, again much like last year, as they are only 24th in the league in scoring.

That is a ranking that must always be taken with a grain of salt when talking about the Grizzlies though because of their plodding pace that currently has them 29th or second to last in the NBA in pace rating at 94.1 possessions per game after finishing an identical 29th for the entire season last year at 91.1 possessions, and that style obviously suited them well as they won playoff series over these Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder before losing to the Spurs.

Now, the Clippers’ Coach Rivers is probably not happy with the style his team is playing given his naturally defensive style, although the 7-3 record eases that unhappiness. Still, it is not as if the Clippers are not capable of playing defense, as they return many of the same players from a team that allowed just 94.6 points per game last season under the fired Vinnie Del Negro.

The Clippers will more than likely be forced to play more half-court defense here as the Grizzles are certainly a team that has played at their pace throughout this year and Los Angeles has not applied much defensive pressure to its opponents, meaning Memphis should be able to work the shot clock often as is its wont.

Thus, look for this contest to be atypical of other Clippers’ games so far this year as this game stays ‘under’ on Monday.

[gameodds]5/247695/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Grizzlies, Clippers ‘under’ 199½ (-108)

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