NBA Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, March 28, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Friday, Mar. 28, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

There could be a bloated total in a game where the ‘under’ is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings between the participants Friday night when the San Antonio Spurs (55-16, 27-8 away) pay a visit to the Denver Nuggets (32-40, 19-16 home) at the Pepsi Centers in Denver, CO at 9:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 215½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -104.

Now it is obvious that both of these teams have vast scoring potential, but they have gone ‘under’ in both head-to-head meetings this season with the most recent coming Wednesday in a 108-103 Spurs’ win in the first half of this home-and-home series. Those 211 total points were actually the most points these teams combined for in the last four meetings against each other, all of which went ‘under’, and yet the posted total tonight is still set at more than four points higher than Wednesday’s actual total.

In fact this total is just a smidgeon less than the 216 that the Wednesday total closed at, and that contest would have been lower scoring also if the Spurs did not relax with a 17-point lead entering the fourth quarter, allowing Denver to score 36 points in that final stanza.

Head-to-head meetings aside, each of these teams is on a current ‘under’ streak, primarily due to continuously playing to inflated posted totals like this one. The Spurs have now gone ‘under’ in four straight games, although at least in their case part of the reason is playing defense! San Antonio held the first three opponents during this ‘under’ streak to below 100 points, in fact allowing no more than 91 points in those games.

The Spurs probably could have held Denver to double-figures too if they did not ease up on the defensive intensity over the final quarter with a big lead. Also, with relatively little fanfare, the Spurs are fifth in the NBA in points against at 97.6 per game and seventh in field goal percentage allowed at 44.4 percent, which often get overshadowed by the offense averaging 105.4 points per game on 48.8 percent shooting to key a 40-30-1 ‘over’ mark overall.

Not many of those ‘overs’ were vs. hefty totals like this one though and note that the combined score of all San Antonio games of 203.0 points is more than 12 points less than the posted total here.

The Nuggets are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run but in their case the reason has almost exclusively been inflated totals as those three ‘unders’ have still produced an average of 210.3 total points combined! With that said, that high average is still five points less than tonight’s total so the Nuggets are yet again playing to an inflated number.

Yes, Denver is ninth in the NBA in scoring at 103.8 points per game while simultaneously 28th out or 30 teams in points against at 106.0 per game, and yet the ‘under’ is still 37-35 in all Nuggets’ games this season and that overall combined average of 209.8 points remains significantly less than tonight’s total.

Add this all up and while we do not expect a low-scoring game by any means, we do expect the teams to end up falling short of the huge total again and producing a fifth straight ‘under’ in this series on Friday.

[gameodds]5/260245/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Spurs, Nuggets ‘under’ 215½ (-104)

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