NBA Pick: Timberwolves and Spurs over 198½ on Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, January 13, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 13, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

The Spurs have won 11 straight home games while averaging nearly 109 points in those games while the ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four Timberwolves games despite Kevin Love being out.
Expect a high-scoring game on Sunday night when the suddenly defenseless Minnesota Timberwolves (16-17, 6-12 away) pay a visit to the potent San Antonio Spurs (28-11, 15-2 home) at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 198½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

The Spurs are coming off of a 101-98 overtime loss to the Memphis Grizzles on Friday, marking their third consecutive road loss, but fortunately they are back at home here where they have become practically unbeatable while putting up monstrous point totals. That is obviously reflected in San Antonio being a double-digit home favorite in this spot, which we have no interest in giving, but the ‘over’ certainly seems attractive at less than 200.

Looking at the entire season, San Antonio is third in the NBA in scoring with 104.8 points per game, as well as second in field goal percentage at 48.3 percent and fourth in three-point shooting at 38.9 percent, and the Spurs also grade out well on the NBA efficiency ratings, ranking fifth with 106.8 points per 100 possessions and doing so while playing at a fast pace, ranking third in the league with a tempo rating of 96.8 possessions per contest..

The last time the Spurs were home, they nipped the Los Angeles Lakers 108-105 Wednesday, and high scoring affairs like that have become par for the course the AT&T Center lately. Then again, the Spurs have held up their end of the offense here all season, averaging 106.3 points in this building on 49.2 percent shooting including a scintillating 40.2 percent from beyond the three-point arc.

The Spurs have taken things to a whole new level in the Lone Star State lately though, winning 11 straight games at home to go to 15-2 here while averaging 108.8 over that winning streak and scoring over 100 points nine times and 99 points in the other two games, and that scoring average jumps to 112.0 points in the last six games here!

This particular game looks like another nice matchup for the San Antonio perimeter shooters as the Minnesota defense has unbelievably allowed opponents to shoot an unheard of 51.1 percent from beyond thee three-point line over the last four games.

The Timberwolves lost Love when he re-fractured his right hand vs. the Denver Nuggets on January 3rd, the same injury that delayed his seasonal debut this year. This time, he is expected to be out until late March.

Despite Love’s absence, Minnesota has still managed to go ‘over’ in three of the four games since he went down, although a huge reason for that has been the defense allowing over 100 points in all four games thanks to the aforementioned difficulties defending the perimeter, and that should prove fatal vs. a great three-point shooting team like the Spurs.

San Antonio could reach 110 points in this contest, meaning that the Timberwolves may not even need to do much to help push this game ‘over’. Still, it is reassuring that center Nikola Pekovic has taken more of a leading role in the four games since the Love injury, averaging 20.3 points while shooting a scorching 59.6 percent from the field over this period.

Thus, look for an ‘over’ in San Antonio on Sunday.


NBA Pick: Timberwolves, Spurs ‘over’ 198½ (-110)
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