NBA Pick on the Final Unbeaten to Fall Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, November 9, 2014 6:06 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2014 6:06 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Sunday.


The last remaining unbeaten NBA team may not hold that title any longer at the end of the night on Sunday when the perfect-so-far Golden State Warriors (5-0, 3-0 away) pay a visit to the Phoenix Suns (3-3, 2-2 home) at the US Airways Center in Phoenix, AZ at 8:05 ET in a game available on Comcast - Bay Area.

The point spread at Bet365 has Phoenix as a tiny home favorite for this contest with the current line at -1 with odds of -110.

And Then There Was Only One
The Warriors are playing the second game of a back-to-back after visiting Houston last night and prevailing 98-87 in a matchup of undefeated teams. And with the other unbeaten team entering Saturday the Memphis Grizzlies losing to the Bucks on Milwaukee, it means that Golden State is now the last unbeaten team standing.

The Suns were one of the most surprising NBA picks in the league last season while winning 48 games, a season where they went 26-15 here at home. Phoenix got off to a 3-1 start overall including 2-0 at home this year, but they now look to get back on track after uncharacteristically losing their last two games both in this arena to the aforementioned Grizzlies and to the surprising Sacramento Kings.

Shooting for First 5-0 Start in 20 Years
The Warriors basically stood pat during the off-season after dropping out of the Kevin Love sweepstakes, so their composition this season is the same as it has been for several years as this is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA led by its dynamic backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and it currently leads the league in both scoring with 107.2 points per game and in field goal percentage at 49.2 percent. Thus Golden State is in a position for its first 5-0 start since the 1994-95 season.

With that said, the Warriors did luck out facing a short-handed Houston team last night that was missing Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones, and it was not exactly a pretty performance as Golden State shot 44.8 percent and committed 26 turnovers. Yes the defense held the Rockets to 28 percent shooting and 31 total points in the second half of the 98-87 victory, but how much of that was due to good defense and how much was due to a depleted Rocket lineup?

And facing the Suns with no rest is not the best of circumstances because Phoenix is also a fast-paced team much like the Warriors, so besides probably not being able to run the Suns off the floor like they do to many other teams, the fatigue factor could kick in for the Warriors in the fourth quarter.

0-2 on 5-Game Home Stand
The Suns have not won since beating the lowly Lakers in Los Angeles on Tuesday, which is disappointing considering the last two losses kicked off a five-game home stand. However, the Suns can still salvage a winning home stand with games vs. the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets following this one, but to do so they obviously need a win here. Not to mention beating a 5-0 team would be a boost to the Phoenix confidence.

And there is really no reason why the Suns cannot hand Golden State its first loss as they did win both meetings with the Warriors in this building last season and the biggest change for Phoenix since those games is the addition of yet another scoring guard in Isaiah Thomas to join Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. There have been enough minutes to go around for that trio too as it has combined for 44.7 points per game, as the Suns have six players averaging double-digits.

Home Dominance in Series
In fact the home teams won all four encounters straight up between these clubs last season and the Suns are now 6-2 ATS the last eight times they have hosted the Warriors. Phoenix is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings regardless of the venues.

Look for the home dominance in this head-to-head series to continue, resulting in Phoenix handing Golden State its initial loss of the 2014-15 NBA season on Sunday.

NBA Pick: Suns -1 (-110)

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