NBA Pick: Take Red-Hot Wizards -6.0 Over Unmotivated Raptors in Game 4

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, April 25, 2015 5:12 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 25, 2015 5:12 PM UTC

Can the higher seeded Raptors avoid the embarrassment of being swept in 4 games? Will Wizards display the killer instinct necessary in order to close out the series? Find out our NBA pick inside.

Washington looks to Eliminate Toronto on Sunday
The Washington Wizards will host the Toronto Raptors on Sunday at 6:35 PM ET. This will be Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal playoff series, and Washington has a commanding 3-0 lead. According to the NBA betting odds at Bookmaker, Washington is a 6.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 198.0. Toronto won all three regular season meetings between these teams. However, they’ve gone a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in this series when the games have mattered most.


Series Overview
The Washington Wizards have surprisingly dominated this series during the first three games in just about every aspect. They hold a +8.7 rebound per game differential, have shot 39.4% from beyond the three-point line, and have averaged 105.3 points per contest. They’ve also held the Raptors to just 41% shooting from the floor, and a dismal 30.7% from three-point territory. The Wizards are also doing a very good job of getting to the free throw line, averaging 27 attempts per game, and that’s five more per contest than their season average of 22.


Wizardry at Home
The Wizards won Game 3 at home by the score of 106-99, and covered as a 4.5 point favorite. They’ve now gone 4-0 in the last four, and 10-2 in their last twelve games at the Verizon Center in Washington. The Wizards have been solid on their home floor all season for that matter, going 30-12 in that role during the 2014-2015 NBA campaign.


Final Analysis
The major sportsbooks have made a 2.5 point adjustment on the opening line in Game 4 compared to that of Game 3. Washington opened as a 3.5 point favorite in Friday’s win over the Raptors, and that opening number was escalated to 6.0 for Sunday. That speaks volumes, since there were no miscellaneous factors which occurred that should have prompted the sizable change.

Sometimes as a handicapper you have to look outside the numbers, and look at factors such as emotion or motivation. The Raptors lack of intensity and urgency has been pretty apparent in the first three games. I don’t see how that will all of a sudden change in Game 4 on the road, and being down 3-0 in the series is hardly a motivational asset. Contrarily, the Wizards are playing with a purpose, and have the look of a team that feels as if they can do some damage in the postseason. I’m siding with the home favorite as one of my NBA picks on Sunday.

NBA Pick: Play on the Wizards -6.0 over the Raptors at Bookmaker

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