NBA Pick: Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies ‘under’ 190½

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, February 12, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

The Kings have not been as offensively potent on the road as they have at home, scoring 100 points twice in the last 16 road games, and the Grizzles are a great ‘under’ team at home.

Do not expect to see too much scoring in one of the NBA matchups on Tuesday night as the Sacramento Kings (19-33, 5-21 away) pay a visit to the Memphis Grizzlies (32-18, 20-8 home) at FedExForum in Memphis, TN at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 190½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Kings are coming off of back-to-back high scoring wins this past weekend, first beating the Utah Jazz 120-109 on Saturday and then beating the Houston Rockets 117-111 on Sunday, but both of those wins came at home with the first one coming on four days rest and the second one coming vs. the team that plays at the fastest pace in the league.

Sacramento now heads out on the road where its offense has not been nearly as potent, and it is visiting a Memphis team that is allowing the fewest points in the NBA with a key reason being that it plays are one of the slowest paces in the league.

The Kings are ranked 17th in the NBA in scoring with 96.7 points per game and just 23rd in field goal percentage at 43.9 percent overall, but it is their home/away disparity that is most interesting in regards to this contest. You see, Sacramento averages a fine 102.2 points per game at home where the ‘over’ is 17-9, but that average plummets all the way down to 91.2 points on an atrocious 41.5 percent shooting on the road , where the ‘under’ is 14-12.

In fact the Kings have reached 100 points only twice in the last 16 road games while averaging a mere 90.7 points over those 16 road affairs The Kings have also been unable to solve the Memphis defense at all in two head-to-head meetings this season, scoring a season-low 69 points here in FedExForum as well as only 81 points back home in Sacramento.

The Grizzlies currently lead the NBA in points against at an even 90.0 per game, and while Memphis is indeed a fine defensive basketball team, it is not the only reason for that low figure. Another reason is that the Grizzlies play at the third slowest pace in the NBA with a pace rating of 91..8 possessions per game, ahead of only the plodding New Orleans Hornets and Brooklyn Nets.

That slow pace is also a contributing factor as to why the Grizzlies rank just 27th in the league in scoring with 93.4 points per game. More importantly though, Memphis ranked an identical 25th in field goal percentage and in three-point shooting, as well as 22nd in offensive efficiency with 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

As you might expect, the ‘under’ is 29-20-1, 59.2 percent in all Memphis games this season including 17-11, 60.7 percent at home and look for more of the same on Tuesday.


NBA Pick: Kings, Grizzlies ‘under’ 190½ (-105)

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