NBA Pick on Rockets, Warriors to sneak ‘under’ Huge Total

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 21, 2015 6:53 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

 

Look for a lower scoring game than the bloated national TV total suggests Wednesday night when the Houston Rockets (29-13, 14-6 away) pay a visit to the Golden State Warriors (33-6, 18-1 home) at Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 217½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.


Best Record in the NBA
The Warriors still own the best record in the NBA at 33-6 as they have avoided the regression many people have been waiting for thus far, instead winning 10 of their last 11 games including a 43-point 122-79 destruction of the Denver Nuggets here at home on Monday! That marked the 16th straight home win for the Warriors and improved them to 18-1 at home overall.

The Rockets are also having a fine season as the fourth seeds in the Western Conference and they trail the Memphis Grizzlies by just one-half game for first place in the ultra-tough Southwest Division and for the third seed in the conference. Houston was also the winning NBA pick on Martin Luther King Day Monday 110-98 over the Indiana Pacers.


Warriors Play Defense Too
Now, there is little doubt that both of these teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but as so often happens in marquee nationally televised games, this posted number seems very inflated. Remember that both of these teams play defense well also, and that the Warriors in fact lead the NBA in defensive efficiency.

That latter fact may come as a surprise to some because the Warriors are 13th in the league in points against at 98.6 per game. That is actually an extraordinarily low figure though when you consider that Golden State plays at the fasted tempo in the NBA with a Pace Rating of 100.8 possessions per game, the only team averaging over 100 possessions, and thus the Warriors lead the way with their 96.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

Of course it helps that Golden State also leads the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 42.1 percent and ranks third in three-point defense at 31.7 percent.


Rockets Look for Atone for Saturday in Houston
And can you guess who is second in the NBA in defensive efficiency? If you guessed the Rockets, you are correct! Houston is allowing 98.4 points per game while ranking eighth in field goal percentage allowed at 44.2 percent and second in three-point percentage at 31.2 percent, which is of the utmost importance vs. the Golden State three-point bombers.

When you then factor in that the Rockets are sixth in Pace Rating at 98.3 possessions per game, they grade out second at 99.1 points per 100 possessions. So besides ranking first and second in defensive efficiency, these are also two of only six NBA team allowing less than 100 points per 100 possessions.

The Rockets are also looking for atonement here as they played probably their worst defensive game of the season in a 131-106 home loss to these Warriors on Saturday. On top of that, with the Warriors already 3-0 straight up vs. Houston this year, the Rockets are trying to avoid a season sweep with this being the final meeting of the regular season, so expect a maximum effort.


An ‘under’ Recent Series
Prior to Saturday’s shootout, the first two head-to-head meetings this season went easily ‘under’ and the ‘under’ is now 6-2 on the last eight meetings overall.

Look for a much lower scoring game than the encounter on Saturday here as Houston and Golden State stay ‘under’ the seemingly inflated total this time around on ESPN on Wednesday.

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NBA Pick: Rockets, Warriors ‘under’ 217½ (-105)