NBA Pick: Portland Trail Blazers, Philadelphia 76ers ‘under’ 195½

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, March 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Mar. 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Trail Blazers have some severe scoring splits at home vs. away while the 76ers are second to last in the NBA in scoring, so look for a fairly low scoring affair on Monday night.

Although these two teams have been scoring some points lately, look for a bit of a correction Monday when the Portland Trail Blazers (31-34, 9-23 away) pay a visit to the Philadelphia 76ers (25-40, 19-17 home) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 195½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Blazers are coming off of a couple of high scoring home wins, the most recent of which was a 112-101 victory over the Detroit Pistons where they barely covered the 10-point spread. LaMarcus Aldridge had a monstrous game for Portland, finishing with 31 points and 12 rebounds.

This little spurt still leaves the Trail Blazers in 10th place in the Western Conference, 3½ games behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the eighth and final playoff spot, Unfortunately Portland is now embarking on a road trip, where its offense has not been nearly as productive.

The Blazers are 13th in the NBA in scoring with 98.3 points per game, but it is the distribution of those points that is interesting as Portland is actually averaging a nice 100.9 points per game at home, but that average drops all the way down to 95.7 points when it hits the road as it is here.

One time when the Portland offense did not do much at home either was in the first meeting with the 76ers this season. The Blazers prevailed in that game but it was an ugly 89-85 victory back on December 29th. That contest continued a pattern of low scoring games in this head-to-head series, but most of those scoring difficulties have taken place here in the City of Brotherly Love, where the ‘under’ is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

Now the 76ers’ have dropped to eight games out of a playoff spot while in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, but you would not know that from their last three games, all of which came here at home vs. teams in the top four in the conference standings.

They won two of those games, most recently beating the Indiana Pacers 98-91 on Saturday. That victory came two games after beating the Brooklyn Nets, and those two victories were sandwiched around a narrow four-point loss to the hottest team in the world in the Miami Heat. Philadelphia even averaged 99.3 points in those three contests.

With that said, this non-conference game seems like a big letdown spot after doing battle with three straight conference powers, and besides, the Sixers still rank 29th out of 30 NBA teams in scoring with only 92.5 points per game. Also keep in mind that they received an unexpected lift from Spencer Hawes vs. the Pacers Saturday, as out of nowhere he recorded 18 points and 16 rebounds.

The odds are probably hugely stacked against Hawes repeating that kind of performance, so look for the 76ers to return to their struggling ways offensively and for the ‘under’ pattern in this head-to-head series to continue on Monday.


NBA Pick: Trail Blazers, 76ers ‘under’ 195½ (-105)

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