NBA Pick on Pelicans, Kings to Stay ‘under’ the Total

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 8:33 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

 

These could be more defense played than the posted total suggests Tuesday night especially with each team quite possibly being down a starter when the New Orleans Pelicans (5-4, 1-3 away) pay a visit to the surprising Sacramento Kings (6-4, 3-1 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 10:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 200½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -104.


Both Teams Could Be Down One Starter
The Kings improved to 6-4 by beating the defending champion San Antonio Spurs 94-91 here at home on Saturday in their first home game back from a 1-3 road trip in which they blow leads of more than 20 points in two of the losses. While the Kings must feel good about beating the champs, especially in light of that road trip, leading scorer Rudy Gay (22.5 points per game) is dealing with Achilles tendinitis and may sit this game out.

Speaking of blowing leads, the Pelicans had a 12-point lead in entering the fourth quarter in Portland last night before becoming the losing NBA picks 102-93 as the Trail Blazers outscored New Orleans 34-13 in that final stanza. The Pelicans are now playing the second game of a back-to-back after playing without starting center Omer Asik due to back issues and he is questionable at best to suit up tonight.


Underrated Defensively
The Kings are averaging 102.8 points per game to rank ninth in the league in that department, but the offense would miss Gay if he sits out so Sacramento may need to rely more on its defense. And the Kings are improved defensively over recent seasons and are in fact a bit underrated in that area.

That is because Sacramento is only 20th in the NBA in points allowed at 101.6 per game. However, that is more of a by-product of the fast pace that the Kings like to play at when they are at full strength as the fact of the matter is they are eighth in the league in field goal percentage allowed at only 43.4 percent!

And the Kings certainly did a fine job defensively while winning the last three meetings vs. New Orleans last season, holding to Pelicans to just 94.3 points per game.


May Put Anthony Davis on Cousins
With Asik out, Alexis Ajinca got the start in the pivot spot for New Orleans last night and scored just six points, which should not be surprising for a guy that has never averaged more than 5.9 points in any NBA season. Ajinca may get the ceremonious start again tonight if Asik’s back is still acting up, but the Pelicans may elect to match up forward Anthony Davis with the Kings bigger center DeMarcus Cousins.

Now, Davis should certainly be up for that challenge as he is a defensive beast and one of the best all-around players in the league. However, using up all that energy on the defensive end vs. a bigger player could take its toll offensively on Davis, especially with this being the second of a back-to-back. Thus, Asik being out could have a trickle down effect not unlike when New Orleans shot only 44.7 percent in Portland Monday.


4-1 ‘under’ Home Run
Finally, perhaps because of their underrated defense the Kings have become good ‘under’ bets at home as of late as it is now 4-1 on their last five home contests. In fact, all Kings’ home games have averaged a combined 198.4 points this season, which is two full points less than this posted total.

Look for that pattern to continue for at least one more night with the Pelicans and Kings going ‘under’ in Sacramento on Tuesday.

NBA Pick: Pelicans, Kings ‘under’ 200½ (-104)